September 13th 2014 - Posted at 11:00 AM ET
There are 3 picks risking a total of 6% from our bankroll today.
Football proved extremely lucrative last year and those who were with us from the opening week all the way to the Super Bowl profited greatly and saw Sports Profit System outdo all competitors! We are confident of repeating that and welcome back loyal long-term clients who have rejoined us.
On another note, it is always worth remembering that profiting from sports is a daily grind and no easy task. It is a marathon and not a race and there will be both ups and downs along the way. Those who are patient and disciplined will reap the rewards. Because much like even championship winning teams, SPS will inevitably suffer some losses but we win more often than not and will once again be at the very top by February! As such, the real value lies in long term success and results should only be evaluated at the end of the season.
Finally, although it does not affect SPS, we highly recommend that clients place their bets with a book that offers 'Reduced Juice'. Wagering at -105 vig/juice instead of -110 makes a huge difference over the course of a long season! It is the primary distinction between clients who profit big and those that profit small since the picks are the same for everyone.
Note: Experienced sports-bettors know the importance of shopping lines. We suggest that you shop for the best lines whenever possible since that half a point or so will at times decide the outcome and turn a win into a push or vice versa.
#1: Take South Alabama at +14 spread against Mississippi State risking 2%
Ladd-Peebles Stadium will be rocking this afternoon when the Mississippi State Bulldogs square off against South Alabama Jaguars.
Given the fact that Southern Alabama is a much smaller school, this is a big game for them! Mississippi State is from one of the 5 "Power" conferences and when a team gets to test their mettle against tougher competition, it usually brings out the best in them as there will be no lack of effort, desire or motivation. The Jaguars have been looking forward to this date and view this game as their Bowl Game!
As for the Bulldogs, they are off to a 2-0 start this season. They have a solid QB in Dak Prescott, they are big and they are fast. Perhaps more importantly however, they are starting to believe in their own hype and are already getting full of themselves. We have seen their confidence build over the last two weeks as they started to click on both the offensive and defensive sides and although very premature, there is already talks of grandoise dreams. While confidence is a good thing, it can also cause a team to get complacent and begin to overlook smaller opponents.
The Jaguars are not a team that is going to win a national title anytime soon. They are also not a team that has the best athletes but they will be the team that is more motivated in this one. This will also be the Bulldogs' first road game of the season. While they have put in impressive performances in their first two games, they had done so in the luxury of Davis Wade Stadium where the cowbells were ringing loud and proud. Tonight will be a different story and that can often times mess with the psyche of a young player. When the going gets tough, in a hostile environment, it is an entirely new challenge to battle through adversity. We do expect the Bulldogs to show a bit of rust being on the road in this one and although we see them winning, we don't see that happening with ease.
This is also a classic look-ahead spot for the Bulldogs as they have a huge game on deck in Death Valley against the LSU Tigers next week! The Bulldogs are naturally look at that game as their chance to make a statement in the SEC this season. LSU has a rather easy game on their schedule tonight as they are sizable favorites and in all likelihood, both teams expect that they will be undefeated when they meet next week. However that may not necessarily be the case if Mississippi State doesn't give the proper respect to the opponents in front of them.
Two touchdowns is a lot of points to lay on the first road game of a season in a look-ahead spot. There are a lot that can go wrong for them. This game could be closely contested throughout, State could make some mistakes early and play from behind or State could have such a big lead that Dan Mullen pulls his starters in the second half allowing the Jaguars to grab a backdoor cover. We have seen the Bulldogs show their lack of discipline on the defensive end numerous times and that may give South Alabama their opening. This is not the ideal spot for the Bulldogs to lay this many points with arguably their biggest game of the season coming up next week against highly motivated and capable opponents. Take the points as they should come into play.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Mississippi State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 road openers.
- Dan Mullen is just 9-19 ATS versus an opponent with a winning percentage greater than .750
- South Alabama not only won and covered but was impressive fundamentally in their season opener.
#2: Take Penn State at -3 spread (buy half a point) against Rutgers risking 2%
With so many non-conference games going on right now, it's nice to see a matchup between conference opponents as Penn State led by new HC James Franklin take on Kyle Flood's Scarlett Knights who are playing in their first matchup as part of the Big 10 conference.
This will be Rutgers' third different conference in the last 3 seasons! That not only takes its toll on the players as they are consistently battling different oppositions, but even more so for the coaching staff who are responsible for the preparation. Coach Flood has gone on record and publically stated that he had not really had much of an offseason this year due to the switch in conferences and that has taken away from his ability to properly prepare his team. That's a huge statement as Penn State is a team themselves that is looking to shake some dark clouds surrounding them and to have a vulnerable and perhaps unprepared opponent would be something they would love to exploit.
We are big fans of the influential James Franklin. The former Vanderbilt coach did a fantastic job at not only recruiting but mentoring and coaching his players. Mostly forgotten in the SEC conference, Franklin's coaching style helped put Vanderbilt on the map and brought us some profitable plays and now he's hoping to do the same with Penn State. It will take some time, but we can already see his footprint in this Nittany Lion team.
Penn State has been known for its tough nosed defense and this season is no different. Their defense has been very hard to break down in the first two games. They have created only 1 turnover however but we expect that to increase as they enter conference play and get adjusted to Franklin's SEC mentality. Under center, Penn State has a weapon in Christian Hackenberg. Hackenberg was the most highly touted freshman last season and he continues to grow and learn each and every time he steps on the field. He is no doubt the leader of this team, something the Lions haven't had for quite some time.
Penn State has played the much tougher schedule to start the season; they had to travel to Ireland to face a very solid UCF team and managed to win that game. They have given up an average of just under 2 touchdowns in their first two games and have one of the best rush defenses in the country! Rutgers QB Gary Nova has had a problem with turning the ball over in his career. If Penn St can shut down the running game and force Rutgers into predictable passing lanes, it will allow their stout defense to come up with some big plays.
We feel it will take the Scarlett Knights some time to adjust to playing in their new conference. Meanwhile James Franklin has his new squad buying into his values already and we can see their confidence translate onto the field. State is in a much better position and should win this game by a FG or more.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Penn State is 13-1 in the last 14 meetings against Rutgers!
- Rutgers is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win.
- Penn State is 14-5 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
#3: Take Texas Longhorns at +8 spread against UCLA Bruins risking 2%
The UCLA Bruins travel to AT&T Stadium in Arlington Texas to take on the Longhorns tonight. The Texas Longhorns were supposed to be in a prime rebuilding year. Mack Brown stepped down after a long tenure and former Louisville coach Charlie Strong has stepped in and immediately begun bringing Texas back to the storied, powerhouse program they once were. In the opening week, the Longhorns hammered in-state rival North Texas. They appeared extremely solid on defense and more than capable on the offensive end. A concussion then forced veteran QB David Ash out for their revenge matchup against BYU and that proved costly. BYU dominated the Texas for the second straight season defeating them 41-7! For those who remember last season, after the Longhorns defeat to BYU, that proved to be the motivation that they needed as they went on and rattled off an impressive winning streak finishing 7-2 in the Big 12.
We expect last week’s loss to add fuel to the fire for this squad. Charlie Strong is a proud coach and will have no doubt gotten on his team over the last week in practice. With David Ash still out with a concussion, a big part of the game plan will be running the ball with Jonathan Gray and Malcolm Brown behind their big offensive line. Tyrone Swoops is still getting used to being the signal caller so we'd expect Strong to shrink the game down a bit and not ask him to do too much. Texas has a solid defense and their emphasis will have no doubt been on slowing down the run, we don't expect to see UCLA being able to rush on them the way BYU did last week.
UCLA is a program that came into the season with a lot of hype and many are still in love with them. Brett Hundley is a dynamic player, but thus far this season the Bruins have failed to impress. Despite winning their first 2 games of the season, there wasn't anything particularly impressive about those victories. UCLA struggled more than many expected in those matchups. The main issue for the Bruins right now is that their defense that ranks 11th in the Pac-12 with an average of 427 yards allowed! There’s no excuse for a talented UCLA defense to allow 35 points to the Memphis Tigers. If Memphis was able to move the ball on the Bruins, the Longhorns should have little issue as well.
The UCLA Bruins are weak on the offensive line. Thus far this season, the O-line has failed to protect Hundley leading him to be sacked 9 times already in the first two games and those were against the defenses of Virginia and Memphis! Texas is much bigger upfront than either of those teams and after the embarrassing defeat they suffered last week, they will be motivated to come up big tonight. The Longhorns defense has also recorded double digit sacks on their opponents and if they are able to overpower the Bruins offensive line, they could be spending a lot of time in their opponents backfield.
The betting public has been high on the Bruins since the start of the season and they aren't backing down. The BYU defense is solid this season so the fact that Swoope who was making an expected start was mediocre in that game in not that concerning. The Bruins defense is softer than the Cougars and Swoope will be more confident and prepared for this game than his last one. If he can manage the game, they should be able to keep this game close. Giving Charlie Strong and Texas more than a touchdown cushion is too much in our opinion.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Texas is 10-0 ATS in the reg season when losing last game by 31-62 points and facing a team that scores less than 46 ppg!
- The Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. Pac-12 opponents.
- UCLA is just 9-26 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
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