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September 12th 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM ET

Saturday's focus will be entirely on NCAA college football and picks will be posted at standard (11:00 AM ET) time.

Tonight, we see a lot of value in a huge underdog and are risking 2 units to win 3.5 units!

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On another note, it is always worth remembering that profiting from sports is a daily grind and no easy task. It is a marathon and not a race and there will be both ups and downs along the way. Those who are patient and disciplined will reap the rewards. Because much like even championship winning teams, SPS will inevitably suffer some losses but we win more often than not and will once again be at the very top by February! As such, the real value lies in long term success and results should only be evaluated at the end of the season.

Finally, although it does not affect SPS, we highly recommend that clients place their bets with a book that offers 'Reduced Juice'. Wagering at -105 vig/juice instead of -110 makes a huge difference over the course of a long season! It is the primary distinction between clients who profit big and those that profit small since the picks are the same for everyone. 

Note: Experienced sports-bettors know the importance of shopping lines. We suggest that you shop for the best lines whenever possible since that half a point or so will at times decide the outcome and turn a win into a push or vice versa. 
 

Take Houston Astros as big underdogs (+175) on the Money Line against LA Angels risking 2%
(Oberholtzer and Wilson must start)

This is a special situation in which one team is underpriced and undervalued while the other is on everyone's radar! The Angels are, at the moment, the very best team in baseball. They have the best record and are seemingly cruising into the post-season. Typically this is the time of the season in which teams who have punched their ticket to the playoffs sit back and simply go through the motions of the game while trying rest players and avoid injuries. The odds-makers had felt that that would be the case with the Angels as well which is why they had lowered the price on LA making them quite affordable. Because of this, the books took a huge loss on them at the hands of the betting public when the Angels continued to win. The public has not backed off on the Angels as once again this evening they are getting a huge amount of action from bettors. This has set up what we feel is an ideal scenario for the books to make back quite a bit of money. Friday nights are often the downfall of casual sports-bettors and it seems that they want to back this team no matter what the price, the situation or the opposition. 

While the Angels have been the team grabbing a majority of the headlines, the Houston Astros have quietly put together quite an impressive winning streak themselves. Often times when teams have no chance of making the playoffs, they use this part of the season to try out different talent and simply wait for the season to end. That is not the case with the Astros who fired Porter and have an interim manager in Tom Lawless in charge. Houston has continued to play each and every game for all 9 innings and has built momentum for themselves. Also, it is not like the Astros have been beating weak competition, their winning streak includes taking 2 of 3 games from both the Oakland A's and Seattle Mariners and sweeping the Angels in a two-game set in Houston giving them 8 wins in their last 10 games! The difference is that they're not in the media spotlight and so many are unaware of just how well this team has been playing while everyone is high on the Angels and continues to hear about them day and night. Houston has the ability to beat CJ Wilson and this Angels team and has already proven it on more than one occasion this season!

For LA, this is an incredibly easy game to look past. Not many squads look at the Astros as a legitimate threat, but they are. Looking at the pitching matchup, people will see CJ Wilson, who is a veteran pitcher and a household name on the mound and assume that he is the better pitcher. That is not the case this season as Oberholtzer actually has better numbers than Wilson. The last time Wilson faced off against the Astros, he was tagged for 8 hits, 5 runs and lasted less than 4 innings!  In fact, Wilson has not given up less than 5 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts against Houston and has only made it into the 4th inning once! While we don't necessarily expect that to happen again tonight, Wilson will have that in the back of his mind and that could have an effect on his delivery. The Angels also used 7 relief pitchers last night against the Texas Rangers so their bullpen is more fatigued and that could spell trouble if Wilson has another short outing.

We don't feel that the Angels should be this large of a favorite in this particular spot. They have been steamrolling the competition and the books have taken an absolute beating. It is only a matter of time before the bottom falls out and things come crashing down on the public. Complacency may also be a factor when you have the best record in baseball and are riding an 8-game winning streaks and facing a supposed minnow. The Astros may even end up losing this game but this will be much closer than anticipated and with such a sizable return (payoff), true investors know that it is too good to pass up. CJ Wilson has had a horrid time against the Astros and his team should be no more than -155 in this spot in our opinion. There is definite value on a capable live underdog regardless of the final score and win or lose, we'll have no regrets.




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