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May 29th 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM Eastern Time

Sports Profit System is 14-2 in its last 16 picks and closing out what has been another stellar month!

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Take Atlanta Braves on the Money Line (-105) against Boston Red Sox risking 2%
(Minor and Peavy must start)

This is an interesting matchup tonight as the Braves look to avoid dropping a 4th straight game to the Boston Red Sox. They will do all they can to avoid the sweep while keeping their 1/2 game lead in the NL East.

It wasn't long ago that the Red Sox were the team that was struggling. Prior to this series against the Braves, the Red Sox had dropped 10 straight games, its longest losing streak in 20 years! And now the Sox have a 3-game winning streak all at the misfortune of the division leading Braves; their longest this season. Jake Peavy will take the mound for Boston tonight and he has struggled mightily especially over his last 3 starts, a spell in which he sports an embarrassing 8.82 ERA!

Peavy gave up five runs in six innings of a 6-5, fifteen-inning road loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. He was spotted a 5-0 lead before throwing a pitch but allowed the Rays to pull even by the fifth! Peavy has had issues with his control all season long and has walked 28 batters in 10 starts this season. He's also been known to give up home runs having already allowed 9 this season! Home runs are something that this Braves offense feasts off of. If Peavy gives hitters a free pass on base, the Braves could make him pay by taking the ball deep tonight. In his last start against Atlanta, he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings when he played for the Chicago White Sox. He will need to beware of Justin Upton who is currently batting .447 with four home runs and 14 RBIs in his last 11 games! Upton is an impressive 6 for 9 with a homer and a triple in his career against Jake Peavy.

Atlanta came into this series on quite a hot streak having won 6 of their 8 games before dropping their last three to the Red Sox. The Braves will send Mike Minor to the hill tonight. Minor has only started 5 games this season but he has progressively settled in and gotten more comfortable in each start. He's only played one game on the road this season but he pitched a gem going nearly 7 innings and gave up just 3 hits and no runs against the Giants! He has pitched well and has allowed three or fewer runs in four of five starts but has received little in terms of run support getting either one or no runs three times! With the Braves having been shutout despite getting hits last night and looking to avoid being swept, we expect Minor to get some much deserved run support from his determined team.

It's not often that you see a proud quality team like the Braves get swept and we don't believe that will happen tonight. We expect Atlanta to do everything that they can to win this game. The Red Sox have a date with their division rivals the Tampa Bay Rays on deck tomorrow night where they will be facing their "Ace" David Price. After beating Atlanta 3 straight times, it's not unlikely that they have become just a little bit complacent and disinterested in this series. Atlanta has been good at pulling out close games this season and are 12-7 in game decide by just a single run. In what could be a close game they would have a mental edge over a Red Sox team who is just 5-12 in games decided by a single run. We expect the Braves to avoid the sweep and rally behind Mike Minor.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Red Sox are a terrible 3-9 at home this season with a money line of -100 to -125!
  • Braves are 4-1 after getting shut-out this season!
  • Red Sox are only 11-18 at Fenway Park this season.

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