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May 25th 2014 - Posted at 11:00 AM Eastern Time

Sports Profit System has now won 9 of its last 10 picks! 

Today's NBA bet is a special case in the sense that we are going for the Money Line instead of the spread.
We are risking 3% of our bankroll to win 2.14%.

Those who intelligently use 'Reduced Juice' as they should to help their own cause and get the best odds such as 5dimes and 'sportsbook' can even currently find the odds at -135!


Take Oklahoma City Thunder on the MONEY LINE (-140) against San Antonio Spurs risking 3%

Game 3 between the Spurs and the Thunder takes place tonight as the venue shifts from San Antonio to Oklahoma City. The first two games of this series have been all San Antonio. The Thunder appeared to be completely outclassed in both games and tonight they find themselves potentially going down in the 0-3 hole if they can't figure out how to contain the Spurs offense.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are an elite team, there is no debating that; but so far they have looked out of sorts in this series. Whether the injury to Serge Ibaka is the reason for their struggles or not is up for debate, what is for certain is that the Thunder absolutely NEED to win this game! No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a playoff series and it's highly unlikely they would be able to do it against a veteran team like the San Antonio Spurs. The time for action and adjustment is now for the Thunder and after a completely underwhelming effort in Game 2, we expect them to come out fired up tonight. 

The change in venue for tonight's game might just be what the Thunder need to get back into this series. While Oklahoma City has had success on the road this season, it in no way compares to how much better they play at home in the Chesapeake Arena. The Thunder had a dominant 34-7 home record in the regular season which included two victories over these same San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs have frequently struggles against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. This is one of the few venues where the Spurs haven't looked like the same team. In the last 9 meetings between these teams in the Chesapeake Arena, Gregg Popovich's team has only managed one win!

The Thunder's success at home has a lot to do with role players and other starters stepping up. Guys like Kendrick Perkins, Steven Adams and Thabo Sefolosha seem to become much better players on their home court. Playing on the road, is tough for some players in the league and that's mostly due to nerves and the fact that they may not be as comfortable playing in a different arena. When at home in a venue they know, they are much more confident and far more productive. It becomes more of an all-out team effort rather than just the typical playmakers stepping up in KD and Russell Westbrook. 

While the Thunder should get a boost from the home crowd, we expect the opposite to happen to San Antonio. The Spurs had benefited from playing at the AT&T Center and they looked like a well oiled machine in those games. We don't expect them to fall apart but do see things being tougher on them tonight. They will have to work harder for their points and will have to contain an extremely motivated group.

Let's not forget that this Thunder team is more than capable of beating the Spurs. Oklahoma City managed to sweep the Spurs in the regular season this year and back in 2012, they were in a similar position where they went down 0-2 in the series only to bounce back and win the next four games for a 4-2 series victory! This is a team with a lot of heart and they are not going to just roll over and accept defeat. A lot of hype has been made about Serge Ibaka possibly playing tonight. Whether he does or not we don't believe will be the deciding factor tonight. This game has a lot to do with situational awareness and public perception. The Spurs had been 6 point favorites over the Thunder in San Antonio and after beating the Thunder by 50+ points the last 2 games combined, the odds-makers suddenly make the Thunder -2.5 favorites? That is more than an 8 point swing simply because of a change in venue! We feel that is an extremely telling number. The odds-makers know that the betting public has a short memory and will only look back on the last 2 games and see how easily Spurs won those meetings and now see them getting points and jump on board. We feel that is a mistake. Vegas tried this once before when the Spurs were on their extended 20 game win streak in the regular season. In their matchup with OKC on 4/3, the Spurs were listed as 3 point underdogs despite their incredible streak! Many looked at that as a mistake and took the Spurs plus the points and were severely disappointed when the Thunder blew them out 106-94! This shouldn't be a blowout but there are good reasons why the Thunders are the favorites in this matchup tonight. 

We believe that Kevin Durant and the Thunder are more than capable of securing the win and getting the cover, however our strongest belief is that they will win this game outright. We have seen many times how a late meaningless 3-pointer has cost us the cover narrowly even though our team has won the game. We can see this being close throughout and want to align our interests with the players and coach Scott Brooks. Strange things sometimes happen at the end of a game and we don't want to worry about laying 2.5 points. OKC should get the victory in what is a must-win game and in this rare case, the money line is the best option.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • OKC is a perfect 7-0 after playing three consecutive road games!
  • Spurs are 1-8 in their last 9 visits to Oklahoma City!
  • OKC is 21-8 when revenging a loss this season.
  • The Thunder swept the Spurs winning all 4 matchups in the regular season.

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