May 1st 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM Eastern Time
The month of May will see two bets on average on most days. Some days will have 3 bets and some will have just one depending on the number of scheduled games and the value in the set lines/odds.
Tonight, we lean towards a couple of teams but only one outcome is worth wagering on in our opinion.
Take the UNDER 210 Total in LA Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors risking 2%
Tonight is Game 6 which means that this could be the Golden State Warriors' final game of the season. It's somewhat fitting that this game is being played in front of their fans. Oracle Arena has been known to be one of the loudest venues in the league and we don't expect that to change tonight as Golden State fights to keep their season alive. The Clippers have also been through a roller coaster of emotions for the last week as the Donald Sterling debacle has spread not only around the league but around the country like wildfire. There's no doubt that the entire Clippers organization has been affected by this and it has been evident in the play of the team on the court. After commissioner Adam Silver banned Sterling for life, the Clippers came out and won Game 5, almost expectantly. Game 6 however, might be a different story.
Golden State has one chance tonight to extend their season and their best chance at doing that is to contain the Clippers' high powered offense. Golden State has been at their best when they have pressured the Clippers on the defensive end and we have seen them do that a couple of times already this series, holding LA to under 100 points in both games played in Oracle Arena. Golden State has the game plan to do it again; they just need to execute it. In Game 5 the Warriors made quite a few mistakes. Stephen Curry had numerous costly turnovers in that game while also having a pretty poor shooting night. Turnovers usually lead to fast break points and easy baskets for the Clippers! Every team has a night like that once in a while and that was Golden State's. We expect a much more focused effort tonight on limiting the mistakes that hurt them last game and not allow for the easy baskets.
For the Clippers, it's still a relative unknown as to how this team is going to react after the Donald Sterling incident. Yes, they played well at home in Game 5 using the motivation of Sterling being banned to fuel them in that contest, but how will they now react going back on the road? Have all of the players worked out their issues? Do all of them still want to play for this organization? It's hard to tell after just 1 home game, but we expect to still see some lingering effects from this ordeal especially on the road in a hostile environment. If the Clippers' heads are not fully focused on this game, it could have an effect on the scoreboard.
Golden State will also be playing for their playoff lives tonight. That's quite a bit of pressure, even at home. Coming out and playing too conservative in order to limit mistakes will not help them tonight. It may however help the overall score as shots may be just a bit off due to the pressure of the situation. Golden State is a team that lives and dies by the 3 ball. If their 3 pointers are not falling, that is when we typically see them turn up the defensive pressure and turn the ball games into much lower scoring affairs. The crowd noise in the arena should be overwhelming tonight and while it may aid Golden State, it will more than likely hurt the Clippers and somewhat throw them off their game.
There are simply too many angles in this particular game to think that it will turn into a shootout. Yes both teams are capable of scoring and scoring in bunches, but we believe Golden State knows that their best chance for success in this game lies on the defensive end and limiting what the Clippers do offensively. The Warriors have been good at getting the Clippers in foul trouble early and we look for them to revert back to that tonight. The Warriors have managed to hold LA to under 100 points in both home games this series and we see tonight going the same way. Given the gravity of this game, we expect both teams to step up defensively and struggle somewhat offensively which should cause the total to fall short. Take the Under 210.
Other notable facts to consider:
- The Under is 22-15 when Golden State is revenging a loss vs an opponent this season.
- The Under is 18-9 after Golden State allowed more than 105 points in their previous game!
- The Under is 7-3 when Golden State is coming off a loss of 10 or more points!
Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.