Members Only

March 23rd 2014 - Posted at 12:00 PM Eastern Time

After 4 incredibly lucrative weeks which brought in 12 units, 4 units, 11 units and 8 units respectively, it would be only normal to finally have a losing week and to suffer a temporary setback. 

There are a few teams we lean towards but ultimately one presents the most value today and that's what we're going for. Most can currently find Creighton at -3 while a couple of places have them at -3.5. IF that's the case, buy half a point for extra insurance.


Take Creighton at -3 spread against Baylor risking 2%

Creighton has been one of the most consistent teams in the country all season long. They came very close to winning the Big East in their inaugural season, proving that they are a team that can hang with the bigger schools in the country. Doug McDermott is an All-Star and one of the very best college basketball players in the country. He is the bonafide leader of this team and no matter how coaches try to game plan against him, he always seems one step ahead. He averages 27 points per game and has been the catalyst of this highly explosive offense! Creighton is an experienced team and has capable shooters like Ethan Wragge, Grant Gibbs and McDermott himself. All starters shoot at least 40% but those three in particular have shown their ability to make clutch shots and can hurt Baylor today. 

The Baylor Bears have had a good run recently, there is no question about that. They have momentum heading into this tournament and put on a solid performance against Nebraska in their last matchup. However, the issue that we see here is the fact that the Baylor defense plays directly into the strength of the Blue Jays. Baylor plays a 2-3 zone which is designed to prevent "drivers" from penetrating into the lane. The way to defeat that particular zone is to use perimeter shooting, something that Creighton leads the nation in. The Bluejays rank #1 in the country in 3-point shooting making 42% from beyond the arc! They have shooters scattered all across the perimeter and move the ball extremely well to find the open man; something the Bears have trouble defending.

We look at this matchup somewhat like we viewed the Michigan / Texas matchup yesterday. We had explained that Texas should have had an advantage in the rebounding department, much like Baylor will in this matchup BUT that Michigan has the better talent in terms of pure shooters, which Creighton will have today. Michigan was able to hit all of their outside shots yesterday and we expect Creighton to punish the Baylor defense today.

Creighton has been the much more consistent team this season. A lot of their success has hinged on their ability to make those outside shots and they have stepped up and delivered on nearly every occasion. They defeated Villanova twice while the Bears had their up and downs and were even beaten by teams like Texas Tech.
This is a chance for Creighton to prove all doubters wrong and to show that they are able to not only compete but to beat the bigger programs in the country.

This part of the tournament has been tough on the Blue Jays the last couple of years as they were stopped by Duke last season and by the Tarheels the year before. This is McDermott and Creighton's best and final chance to make a deep run in the tournament before he moves onto the NBA! Last year he surprised many by electing to not turn pro because he and his teammates believed they can make a deep run and make history for Creighton basketball. This team is coached by his dad and they all feel like they have unfinished business in the NCAA Tournament. This team isn't ready to go home and we expect their past defeats to be used as motivation to finally get over the hump and prove that they belong in the Sweet 16. It hasn't been too often when we have seen Creighton as only 3-point favorites. They shoot 50% from the field and are capable of scoring in bunches and blowing any game wide open. Lay the three points.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Creighton is 22-11 ATS in non conference games the last 3 seasons!
  • Creighton is 4-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or pick.
  • Baylor is 6-13 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games.

Bankroll Tutorial:

Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.