March 18th 2014 - Posted at 05:00 PM Eastern Time
Sports Profit System has twice as many wins as losses this month (16-8) and is ready and excited for March Madness!
The NCAA Tourney will soon bring about many great opportunities to add to our profit and we will take full advantage with multiple picks when it is warranted.
A day like today was tougher on the other hand with only 5 NBA games scheduled and numerous key injuries, etc.
There is only one team we like tonight and even that is a below average 1% lean.
It has been a long time since we had a 1% lean and tonight is the right time for it given that we believe Sacramento is the correct side but do have some reservations.
Take Sacramento Kings at +1.5 spread against Washington Wizards risking 1%
The Washington Wizards, winners of 10 of their last 13 head to Sacramento tonight to face a Kings team that has been struggling and has dropped 5 of their last 6 games. One would think that a playoffs-bound team on a hot streak would have opened up as a bigger favorite than only one point against a team that is currently 21 games below .500! This line is suspiciously low and yet 80% of the public have taken the bait!
The Kings are coming off of their longest road trip of the season and it was a rather unsuccessful one. Seven games on the road and they walked away with just a 2-5 record during that span. The players will no doubt be excited to be back playing at home tonight and actually catch the Wizards in somewhat of an unfavorable spot. This is the first game of a challenging West coast trip in which the Wizards will have to play 4 games in 6 nights. This is also revenge time for the Kings as the Wizards grabbed a win back in Washington on Feb 9th in a game that Nene (who'll be missing tonight) proved hard to handle and scored 18 points!
The Kings have had some success against the Wizards in Sacramento in the past and we expect that to continue tonight. Everyone is aware that Nene is out indefinitely with an injury and while the loss of Nene has somewhat hurt the Wizards, recently Bradley Beal has been dealing with an injured ankle as well. Nene, Beal and Wall make up the vast majority of the Wizards offense. Without Nene, the Wizards miss a big piece but can still adapt and have another player step up but the loss of Beal would be devastating for this team. Beal is a playmaker and even though he will more than likely play tonight, an ankle injury is serious in basketball. It affects everything from the player's defense to the angle of the shot and Beal is unlikely to be at his best tonight.
Even though the Kings are viewed by many as a poor team, they do have talent on their roster and they average over 100 points a game especially at home. After struggling so much over the course of their recent road trip, we feel that the comforts of Sleep Train Arena is just what this team will need to get back some of the offense they had been lacking. It's always tough the first game back home after a road trip, but let's not forget this is also the first trip on the road for the Wizards against a non-conference (West) team whom they are only 10-15 against this season! Sacramento has been an unassuming team all season long and they have pulled off their fair share of upsets. The Wizards have a big game against the Trail Blazers in two days, so it would be easy for them to overlook a poor team whom they have already beaten but that' would be a costly mistake.
The Kings are a very good team on the glass and have out-rebounded their last 10 opponents! They have big guys who can dominate and the absence of Nene will make things even more difficult for Washington tonight. If the Kings can attack off the glass and limit the Wizards to single chance opportunities, they have a good chance of outright victory. Since the Kings are not making the playoffs this season, they are in a position to play the role of spoiler. This part of the season is always interesting as we sometimes see teams we "expect" to perform fail to show up and the teams that don't have much to play for often times rally and perform much better than expected. We believe this is one of those cases tonight. The line-makers have installed the Wizards at just over a pick'em in what many will see as the easy and obvious side. The Wizards have been solid on the road, they will more than likely make the playoffs and have a much better record than the Kings. Yet they are only marginal favorites? Many times in the past we have stated that when things seem too good to be true, they usually are.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Sacramento is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams with winning road records!
- Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
- Washington is 0-6 ATS since Jan 27, 2012 on the road after John Wall shot better than 66% from the field in their last game.
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