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March 12th 2014 - Posted 05:00 PM Eastern Time

Clients are encouraged to log in at 11:00 AM ET (New York time) tomorrow in case we decide to release picks for the afternoon games.

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The Detroit Pistons gave us our 9th consecutive winner last night and made it 24 out of the last 31!

This remarkably lucrative streak obviously can't go on forever but having matched our previous 9-game winning streak, we intend to make it 10 in a row tonight! 

There were originally two bets planned for tonight but significant line movement has sucked out nearly all of the value on one.

 

Take Orlando Magic at +2.5 spread against Denver Nuggets risking 2%

The Denver Nuggets are finally getting healthier but it is too late for them to salvage their poor season and we don't feel they should be laying any kind of points on the road given their recent performances. The Nuggets have lost eight of their last nine away from Denver and been outscored by an average of 16 points in those contests! They have also dropped six of their last seven against Eastern opponents which includes the first two games of this current trip against the Pelicans and the Bobcats. 

The Orlando Magic aren't a good team either but they do have talent and finally have all of their players back. They are young and inexperienced but they have proven that in Orlando they can hang with the very best in the league. Unfortunately for the Magic, they haven't really been able to showcase how much more capable they are at home since 8 of their last 11 games have been played on the highway. The Magic are a terrible 4-30 on the road this season but at home they are 15-16! Prior to heading out on the road, the Magic were able to upset both the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder in back to back home games which once again proves that this team can be dangerous in this venue.

The Magic haven't had much to celebrate this season but players like Tobias Harris and Victor Oladipo are developing very nicely. Tonight's game is a chance for them to get to a .500 home record and while that may seem insignificant to some, it is sometimes "small moral" victories that motivates teams in transition mode. A win tonight won't salvage their season but it would be something to be proud of and build the confidence of their younger talent. This is also a revenge game for the Magic tonight after the Nuggets laid a beat down against them back in January in Denver. These teams are not quite the same teams as they were back then. We feel that Orlando has grown healthier and more cohesive while Brian Shaw has lost some of the Nuggets' locker room. Homecourt could be the deciding factor in this one. 

Another thing we noticed about this game is the hefty line movement throughout the day. It appears that a majority of the public has been backing the Nuggets for a good part of the day. Just around 80% of the money has come in on Denver which has inflated this line. Depending on where you look, some places showed the Magic as opening up as -1 point favorites in this contest, which is telling in itself. Given the fact that the Nuggets have been so poor on the road recently and the fact that this line has been inflated; value has opened up on the home team in this one. Victor Oladipo, Aaron Afflalo and Nikola Vucevic have proven to be a tough undertaking on their home floor and could be a tough matchup down low. The Magic are happy to be back in Orlando and we expect them to come out strong while the Nuggets may be looking ahead to their next game against the defending champions Miami Heat! Orlando Magic is capable of winning this game outright much like they did when we backed them against the NY Knicks on Feb 21st but it's always best to take the points as added insurance. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Nuggets are 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season.
  • Magic are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record!
  • Magic are 14-2 vs Denver when playing in Orlando since 1996



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