March 9th 2014 - Posted 11:00 AM Eastern Time
Saturday brought two more easy winners and that means Sports Profit System has now won 21 of its last 28 picks!
Clients with expiring memberships are encouraged to sign up for a '12-Month' access to take advantage of the discounted price which is equal to purchasing 5 separate months and works out to just $2.74 per day! It features all SPS picks including the entire next football season which has historically been our most lucrative sport.
After profiting a solid 4 units last week and an incredible 12 units the week before, we're wrapping up another lucrative week regardless of what happens today!
Take Chicago Bulls at +4.5 spread against Miami Heat risking 2%
The Heat travel to Chicago to take on the Bulls in their third straight road game for the 4th and final meeting between these two teams during the regular season.
Miami currently leads the series 2-1 but come into this game struggling a bit, having dropped their last two road games. They've had back-to-back poor performances and while teams like the Heat typically bounce back, it is unwise to assume that they will not only win this game but do so easily by 5 or more points.
The last time the Heat traveled to the windy city, they were completely run out of the building as the Bulls notched a blowout 107-87 victory! The Heat responded with a double digit victory of their own down in South Beach and in doing so got revenge for that embarrassing loss. The truth is, the Heat have had some issues playing the Bulls at the United Center. This has come about not only because of the earlier blowout this season but as everyone will recall, it was facing the Bulls in this very venue that ended the Heat's 25+ game winning streak last season! This is no doubt a tough venue for Miami to play in.
While a lot is being said about the Heat's two game losing streak and the improbability of them dropping 3 straight, it's worth mentioning that the Bulls also recently dropped their last home game to the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies however are a great rebounding team, something that the Heat are not, so this matchup is actually easier for the Bulls in some ways. The Heat have had trouble when it comes to some of the more defensive minded teams in the league (Indiana Pacers) and Tom Thibodeau's team has one of the stingiest defenses in the entire league. The line-makers have listed this total at just 188 which means they are expecting defense to dictate the pace of this game and for it to be fairly low scoring. If that is indeed the case, the Bulls have the clear advantage and will make it tougher on the Heat to break the game open by more than a couple of baskets.
Given Miami's two straight losses, the line-makers had opened this game up at -3 favoring the Heat. The betting public believe that spread was too low and it has since been bet up to -4.5 with over 80% of the money coming in on the Heat! That has created value on the gritty home underdog. The Heat are also hosting the Washington Wizards tomorrow night, which happens to be a revenge game for the Heat. We don't believe that they would make the mistake of looking past the Bulls but the thought of having to play another game in a little over 24 hours against a team that beat them recently will surely be in the back of their minds. If they are down big, or even up big in this game, Erik Spoelstra may figure it is best to simply conserve energy for tomorrow's game, rather than spend it all trying to make a comeback or continue a blowout. At this point in the season, its all about doing just enough to win and staying healthy; winning by bigger margins is secondary.
The Heat are the benchmark in the league and are the team that every other opponent compares themselves to. The Chicago Bulls are no different. The Bulls have basically defied the odds for a number of seasons. They have been without their star PG and former MVP, they have battled injuries and they have even traded away Luol Deng. And yet somehow, the Bulls are finding ways to win games and will again make the playoffs this season. That comes from the effort they put into each and every game and the tenacity and character they continuously display.
Expectations of the Bulls aren't very high in this game and it's quick to forget how good the Bulls have actually been. They are 11-4 in their last 15 games with just one home loss during that span! The Heat have the same exact record during that span but 3 of those 4 losses have come on the road. The Bulls are one of the very best rebounding teams in the league and play stellar defense at home. They out-rebounded the Heat 49-27 the last time these two teams met here and we feel superior rebounding to keep them in this game. We expect this to be a close and competitive game and can even see either team winning. With that being the case, we feel the 4.5 points are too precious and may well come into play. Take the generous points with the capable home underdogs.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Bulls are 20-12 SU & ATS when revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season!
- Heat are just 4-7 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season.
- Bulls are 15-7 ATS after a non-conference game this season.
- Since April 14th 2013, LeBron has been held to 22.5 points per game on 45% shooting in 8 matchups with the Bulls.
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