March 5th 2014 - Posted 05:00 PM Eastern Time
Every winning streak starts with just a single wager. That is our aim tonight as we aim to kick-start another lucrative streak.
There were two other teams we leaned towards but had reservations about. Ultimately we felt that only one team is worth wagering on tonight.
Take New York Knicks at +8.5 spread against Minnesota Timberwolves risking 2%
For much of the season the public perception of the New York Knicks had been pretty high. They had a great regular season last year and were in serious contention in the offseason to make another deep run and challenge in the East. As many know by now, their season has played out much different than most expected. Even throughout all of their struggles this season, the betting public were still largely behind the popular NY team waiting for them to explode and make a late playoffs push. Time and time again the Knicks let their supporters down but the public had still been behind them. But now that the Knicks have lost 7 straight games and covered the spread only once in this stretch, the public has finally given up on this team.
We have successfully bet against the Knicks quite a bit this season and that was because we felt that the betting public was over-valuing them in the marketplace.
Now in this particular game, we feel the opposite is true since there is such a low current opinion on this team given their recent struggles that it has forced Vegas to inflate the line just to get some action. Even at this high spread, over 70% are backing the hotter team in Minnesota but while we believe they will win, we don't think they will cover this big number. New York was an 8.5 point underdog when they traveled to South Beach to take on the Heat. The Timberwolves are not the Miami Heat and Minnesota is not South Beach. Spotting the Knicks 8.5 points is simply asking for trouble. Carmelo Anthony is still a dangerous player and we have seen him average 30+ points! He is still a threat to put up 40 or even 50 points in a single game, which makes keeping the Knicks completely out of a game extremely tough. Mike Woodson also publicly stated that he still believes he is the right coach for this team and we expect his team to come out and give him a solid effort tonight. If they do, they should cover this inflated number and make the fickle public regret jumping bandwagons.
The Knicks have taken 3 out of the last 4 meetings with the T-Wolves which shows they have been a matchup problem for them. They have also been one of the few teams in the league that has actually played better on the road in many ways than at home this season! In Madison Square Garden, perhaps it's the pressure of playing in front of an expectant home crowd, they have disappointed but the Knicks have usually been competitive away from home even if they've ultimately fallen short.
Their ability to shoot the 3-ball has kept games close and they actually give up less points on the road than at MSG! Both of those factors are extremely important when getting 8.5 points as it makes covering the big spread that much more difficult for the opposing team.
The Knicks have been playing poorlyl, that is a given and well known. But they have been shooting far below seasonal average over the last few games and we expect a better showing tonight. The Knicks don't have to win this game outright; they simply have to remain competitive and keep this game close which they are capable of doing. Even if they don't, a lot can happen at the end of a game when a team is comfortably leading by double digits! The Knicks haven't played well but they still possess proud players with a competitive nature. They don't like being blown out and Minnesota doesn't need to crush them. They're simply looking to get the win and don't care about the margin. They in fact need to save energy given their tough schedule ahead. The Knicks have been profitable when seeking revenge this season and getting 8.5 points may well be enough to get a backdoor cover even if the Knicks aren't competitive and the T-Wolves are leading big in the final minutes. NY is not a good team but the line-makers pushed this number too far. Take the generous points.
Other notable facts to consider:
- The Knicks are 12-1 ATS over the last decade when playing the third game of a three-game road trip after losing the first two!
- Wolves are just 3-7 ATS in home games when the total has been 210 or greater while the Knicks are 2-0 ATS with this total.
Carmelo Anthony's teams have won eight straight in Minnesota when he's been healthy! He had 36 points in only appearance at the Target Center.
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