March 3rd 2014 - Posted 05:00 PM Eastern Time
Sports Profit System is 14-4 over the last 18 picks and coming off two lucrative weeks!
Normally SPS does NOT recommend buying points in basketball and most don't need to BUT those who currently find Nets at -3.5 instead of -3 should do so in this rare case. There are two bets risking 4% from our previous profit tonight.
#1: Take Brooklyn Nets at -3 spread against Chicago Bulls risking 2%
The Chicago Bulls are the hottest teams in the league at the moment. Despite all of the injuries they have had had to deal with, they've managed to not only win 9 of their last 10 games but cover 9 of 10 as well with their only loss/non-cover coming at the hands of the 2-time defending champions Miami Heat. They are as hot it gets coming into this contest with the streaky Brooklyn Nets.
The Nets are coming off a long 7-game road trip that saw them go 4-3 SU (5-2 ATS). The Nets have been a team that was inconsistent in the first part of the season due to the time it takes for all the new players to gel. But Jason Kidd's team has been playing much better in 2014 and they are now clicking on many new levels.
What we find suspicious is the fact that despite being the team with the better overall record and the hottest in the league, Vegas has made Bulls not only dogs but 3-point underdogs! Another telling fact is that the Bulls have already beaten the Nets twice this season and have done so easily securing a 92-78 victory out in Chicago just 3 weeks ago and 95-78 out in Brooklyn on Christmas Day. One would think that the Bulls should maybe even be favored in this spot given their previous success and recent streak right? That's where we feel the line-makers have got this one right. Because the Bulls have already dominated this team so easily in the past, this is going to be an hard game for them to want this as much. Meanwhile the Nets find themselves in a double revenge situation tonight as they look to avoid dropping two home games to the Bulls and being swept in the regular season meetings. This is a team with a lot of veterans and a lot of pride and the same way they bounced back from a blow-out loss to Portland, we expect them to be at their best tonight in this situation!
Prior to the Bulls' recent winning streak, the public had been very cautious about backing the Bulls on the road. They have been a team that has relied on their defense for much of the season, but have recently found some offense, scoring over 100 points in their last 4 games. The Bulls haven't scored 100 or more points in five straight contests since a eight-game stretch in 2009 however! How quickly people forget that this is the same Bulls team who put up a measly 78 points in South Beach against the Miami Heat without LeBron James and the same team that struggled on a nightly basis to reach 90 points a game. These Bulls are a team that can go cold offensively and we believe they are playing a bit over their heads recently and judging by the spread, the line-makers think alike.
Coming into tonight's game, this is also a different Brooklyn team that the Bulls will see this time around. The Nets are finally healthy with the only missing piece being Brook Lopez. They have all of their playmakers back in the lineup and have played their last 7 games on the road so it is easy to forget how good this team can play on their home court when they are healthy and motivated. Brooklyn has won 4 in a row at home and 11 of the last 13 at Barclays Center. Tonight's game is not only their chance to get revenge but to derail an Eastern rival. They can also get themselves back to that all-important .500 position in the standings for the first time since Nov 5th! The Nets really have a lot more to be motivated about coming into this contest than the Bulls do. It's always tough to go against a team on a hot streak, but all streaks (good or bad) come to an end. This is the final game of the regular season between these two Eastern play-off rivals and the Nets will not want to have lost all 3! The majority of the public is blindly following a hot team that is due for a letdown and we believe they pay for it tonight.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Brooklyn has won 11 of its last 13 home games.
- Brooklyn is 4-2 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games.
- Brooklyn Nets are 19-12 as a favorite this season.
#2: Take the UNDER 190 Total in Memphis Grizzlies vs. Washington Wizards risking 2%
Based on the recent games of both teams, at first it appears that the 'OVER' should maybe be the play tonight. The last 6 games that the Memphis Grizzlies have played have easily gone 'Over' the posted total. They have reached the century mark in 4 of their last 6 games. Washington on the other hand has seen the total fly 'Over' in their last 3 straight games and are averaging a total of 123 points per game during that 3-game span. We tend to have an issue when things appear a bit "too obvious" and as we have learned in this business, things are rarely what they appear to be at first glance.
Back on Feb 26th, we successfully predicted that the Total in the Clippers / Rockets game would stay 'Under' and one of the biggest reasons was due to the recent 'Over' trends by both teams. We had said that: "The line-makers have had to adjust the totals in order to prevent themselves from getting burned at the ticket window." When trends like this appear, the odds-makers typically inflate the line a bit too much on purpose knowing the betting public will still blindly and automatically bet the "Over"" and we believe that holds true again tonight.
The series meetings between these two teams have typically produced low-scoring affairs. In fact, 3 of the 4 meetings between these two teams have seen the totals stay Under with both struggling to crack the 90 point mark. The typical total when these two teams have faced off has been between 180.5 and 181.5! The total set for tonight's contest is almost a full 10 points higher than the average and yet most are still betting the 'Over'. We feel that Vegas has over-compensated as a result of the "Overs" produced by these two teams and have naturally increased the total. Tonight however we feel they have pushed this mark too far and that has opened up value on the 'Under'.
People have seen these two teams score a lot of points recently, but both also have the defensive prowess to turn this into a physical, low scoring affair and we believe that happens here tonight. Both teams will get their points but we don't expect the offenses to be anywhere near as explosive as they have been. If this game avoids overtime and ends in regulation, we feel that this total is a couple of baskets too high. Take the Under.
Other notable facts to consider:
- The Under is 15-5 when Memphis plays against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
- The Under is 21-12 when Washington is coming off a win by more than 10 points!
- Randy Whittman is 21-6 UNDER after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games as the coach of Washington Wizards!
- The Under is 5-1 when Memphis is slated as a road favorites of less than 3.5 points
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