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June 30th 2014 - Posted at 11:00 AM ET

There are two picks today.

The World Cup total is for regulation (90 minutes + stoppage time) and obviously does NOT include extra-time or penalty shootouts.

#1: Take the UNDER 3 Total Goals (-114) in Germany vs. Algeria risking 2% 

#2: Take Tampa Bay Rays (+100) on the Money Line against NY Yankees risking 2% 
(Archer and Phelps must start)

The Rays and Yankees open up their 3-game series from the Bronx tonight. The NY Yankees are within striking distance from the top of the AL East but haven’t been able to gain much ground on the Blue Jays. The Yankees conceded 2 out of 3 games in their series with the Boston Red Sox and now find themselves in another divisional battle against the Tampa Bay Rays. They have struggled over the last week, losing 6 of their last 8 games! Unlike in past years, the Yankees have actually had difficulties at home and have a losing record at just 18-20 on the season! Their pitching has been a sore point for them with a combined ERA of 4.02. Their offense is capable but wildly inconsistent as it has been feast or famine for them over their recent stretch. 

The Yankees will send David Phelps to the mound tonight. Phelps is coming off one of his worst outings of the year as he gave up 6 earned runs (including a homer) against the team they are chasing, the Blue Jays! On the season, Phelps is 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA through 10 starts and his team are just 3-7 when he has taken the hill this season. 

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game tied for the worst record in baseball. Believe it or not, that is actually an improvement from where they were just a week ago. The Rays have had their challenges this season and have failed to live up to expectations. Joe Maddon's club have begun to turn things around however and are playing with renewed confidence having won 4 of their last 5, including 3 of 4 from division rivals the Orioles at Camden Yards!

For much of the season, the Rays' difficulties have come on the offensive side of the ball. Recently however, they have exploded, scoring a combined 28 runs in their last 5 games! The Rays have also had a lot of success against the Yankees and have taken 5 of the last 6 meetings in New York! Although it's a long shot, the Rays still have time to turn their season around and make a run at a playoff spot. They need to win matchups in their division in order to make that happen and with their recent success and past history with the Yankees, this is the perfect opportunity for them to take another step in the right direction and restore some pride. 

Tampa will send young Chris Archer to the mound tonight. Archer is talented and has pitched well this season, but much like the other starters on this Rays team, a big issue has been run support, or lack thereof. Archer is 4-5 with a 3.29 ERA though 16 starts this season. He is a strikeout style pitcher and has struck out 86 batters in 93 innings. He is also a pitcher that keeps the ball in the yard having given up only 3 home runs all season, something that the Yankees have feasted on regularly this season. If Archer can force them into playing "small ball", his team have a great chance tonight. He's had success against NY in the past going a perfect 4-0 in 4 career starts! His ERA over those games is a minuscule 1.26! Given the way that both of these teams have been playing recently, the edge lies with Tampa. Last night they scored 10 runs against Baltimore and if they can get to Phelps and score even half of that, they should come away with the win tonight. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • The Rays are 5-1 in their last six road games!
  • The Rays are 4-2 as a road underdog of +100 to +125.
  • NY Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.

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