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June 14th 2014 - Posted at 11:00 AM ET

There are two picks risking a total of 4% today.

#1: Take Draw (+204) in England vs. Italy risking 2% 

#2: Take Baltimore Orioles on the Money Line (-105) against Toronto Blue Jays risking 2%
(Norris and Dickey must start)

The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles will play game 3 of their four-game series this afternoon. The Blue Jays are 7-5 in the month of June and their offense has finally started to struggle. Despite being one of the best offensive teams in the league, the Blue Jays have produced three or less runs in six of their last eight games. Jose Bautista has done his part as he has scored seven runs in his last 10 games but most of his teammates have not produced consistently. 

The Blue Jays' pitching staff, which has an ERA of 4.04, has allowed four or more runs in six of their last seven game and today they will hand the ball over to veteran R.A. Dickey. The former Met is having a decent season with a 6-4 record and a 4.20 ERA but has found it very difficult on the road thus far this season. On the road, his ERA balloons up to 6.41! Dickey has been throwing the ball well but has not been able to make it past the 5th inning in any of his last three starts and has been having trouble with his location generating 6 walks over his last two appearances! The Orioles have also had his number in the past. Dickey is just 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA in 11 career games against the Orioles.

Like Toronto, the Orioles are also 7-5 in the month of June and their pitching staff has a collective ERA of 4.07, but has allowed three or less runs in five of their last seven games. The Orioles haven’t been as consistent offensively as they’d like but Nelson Cruz has eight hits in his last 10 games and Adam Jones has 13 hits in his last 10 games. Bud Norris gets the start and he’s 5-5 with a 3.94 ERA and is coming off his best start of the season. He dominated the Red Sox for eight innings allowing only three hits while walking three and striking out six, keeping Boston off the board. Norris is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three career starts against the Blue Jays. 

Norris has had unfortunate scheduling luck having made most of his starts on the road this season. We all saw in his last start what he is capable of when pitching in Camden Yards. We expect him to carry over that momentum. Given that the Orioles and their big bats were shut out last night and have fared well against Dickey, we expect them to find their offense today and close the gap on their division rivals. 

Other notable facts to consider: 

  • Baltimore is 15-8 in its last 23 games when playing at home against Toronto. 
  • Bud Norris is 15-6 in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons! 
  • Blue Jays are 1-5 in Dickey's last 6 road starts.

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