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June 6th 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM Eastern Time

Saturday's picks will be posted at 2:00 PM ET.


Take Cincinnati Reds on the Money Line (-132) against Philadelphia Phillies risking 2%
(Cueto and Hamels must start)

This is an interesting matchup as these two NL teams know each other very well. Both teams are struggling somewhat this season and look less and less like the dominating forces they have been in previous seasons. This is a matchup where we get what we feel is the better and more consistent pitcher at a discounted rate. These odds are simply too good to pass up on what should be somewhat of a mismatch in talent on the mound tonight. 

The Philadelphia Phillies look like a shell of the team that dominated the NL East for many years as they are in last place in the division. The Phillies are 12-15 on the road, 2-8 in their last 10 games, and they have lost six games in a row. As a team the Phillies are hitting a collective .241. The Phillies pitching is where they have really struggled this season as the starting rotation has a collective ERA of 4.24. The bullpen hasn't fared much better either with a collective ERA of 4.20! 

Cole Hamels will get the start for the Phillies tonight. Hamels has been on somewhat of a decline over the past few seasons. Hamels has 2 no-decisions in his last three starts and has just a single win on the season. For the season Hamels has allowed 49 hits and 23 earned runs in just over 51 innings of work. He has fared well against Cincinnati in his career but that success won't last forever and even when he has played well, he's often not been given the proper run support.

For the Reds, they will send out their "Ace" Johnny Cueto tonight. Cueto may be the best pitcher that no one is really talking about this season. Cueto just pitched 7.1 scoreless innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks last week and ended up picking up his fifth win of the season. Cueto has a league-leading 1.68 ERA through 12 starts and has allowed just 48 hits and 17 earned runs in 91 innings of work! Why Cueto hasn't had more success this season has been due to lack of run support. He has been fantastic for the most part and gives Reds their best chance to win. Cueto should be able to manage the game and keep it low-scoring; if Cincinnati can muster up some offense, they should be able to get the home victory. At this price, we are getting Cueto at a bargain. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Cincinnati Reds are 31-11 in home games following a loss over the last 2 seasons. 
  • Cincinnati is a perfect 6-0 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season!
  • The Phillies are 0-10 in games with a total of less than 8 since October after issuing 5 or more walks in a loss!
  • Cueto is 12-0 in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.



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