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June 5th 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM Eastern Time

Take San Antonio Spurs at -5 spread against Miami Heat risking 2%

The San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat meet once again in a rematch of last year's NBA Finals. The Spurs will come into this game looking for vengeance and are likely to come out of the gate fired up. Gregg Popovich's team came within just seconds of securing the title last year before a late meltdown and a famous Ray Allen 3-pointer stifled their championship hopes! The veteran Spurs have had a long time to sit and re-think about how they came so close to achieving their goal but fell short and will want to atone for that. Doing so will require a strong performance in Game #1.

After a long off-season, the Spurs hit the ground running and stormed their way through the first 82 games to earn the top seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. With the addition of players like Marco Belinelli and the much improved play of Boris Diaw and Patty Mills, the Spurs are in better shape than last year. The run to the playoffs has been tough at times but they are battle-tested and flexed their muscle in every round managing to get themselves back in position to win another Championship. They know they only have one team left to beat, just four more games to win that recently elusive championship and how sweet it would be for them to avenge their loss to the Heat from last year.

As for the Heat, it seemed like no team has ever had such an easy run to the Finals. The Eastern Conference was quite weak this season and the Heat made it look incredibly easy. We believe they will be taking a big step up in competition tonight and one that they're not necessarily ready for. After sweeping the Bobcats in the first round and beating the Nets 4-1 in the second round, the Heat lost only a couple of games against the Pacers and never looked truly threatened. We have a good idea of what to expect from LeBron James and the extra rest Dwyane Wade was allowed during the regular season seems to have put the Heat in a good spot but Chris Bosh and Ray Allen have had both impressive and disappointing games and will need to step up against a very deep and efficient Spurs team. Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole are also likely to have their hands full with Tony Parker and Patty Mills.

This should be an entertaining series from a fan perspective. The league has not seen a rematch of the NBA Finals since the 1998 season! This was a close and competitive series that had the Spurs outscoring the Heat 684-679 over seven games last year despite losing with 47 ties and 42 lead changes! We do expect a similarly competitive series this year, however Game 1 is a different story. Coach Popovich's team will be motivated to take a year's worth of frustrations out on Miami tonight. They have been dominant at home all season long and even more so during the playoffs. The Spurs don't have much time left together and this may well be their last chance for a run at the title. They should come out aggressive and trouble the Heat from 3-point range.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • San Antonio is 15-7 ATS after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.
  • Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. Western Conference foes!
  • San Antonio is 71-46 ATS in home playoff games since 1996.
  • Miami 2-5 ATS in their last seven visits to San Antonio.

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