June 4th 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM Eastern Time
There are again two picks risking a total of 4% tonight.
#1: Take Colorado Rockies on the Money Line (-120) against Arizona Diamondbacks risking 2%
(Lyles and Collmenter must start)
The Colorado Rockies will be looking to atone for last night's loss and settle back in to the confines of Coors Field. The Rockies have been somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde in terms of games played at home and on the road so far this season. They have been a dominant home team and Coors Field has proven to be a daunting place for visiting teams. The Rockies are 16-8 at home this season and their offense has scored an average of 1.5 more runs at home this season! As a team, Colorado is averaging just under 7 runs per game at Coors Field which is incredibly impressive.
Jordan Lyles (5-1, 3.46ERA) will get the start for the Rockies. This season, he has allowed just 57 hits and 25 earned runs while striking out 46 over 65 innings. While those numbers are good, Lyles has been unlucky in his recent starts. Despite pitching well, Lyles hasn't gotten the run support needed from his team getting just 5 total runs of support in his last 2 starts! Lyles managed to bounce back from a poor outing a couple of starts ago in which he went just under 4 innings while giving up 6 earned runs. If you take away that one start against the Padres, Lyles is a pitcher that simply doesn't give up a whole lot of runs. He has been consistent at home this season where he is 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA.
Josh Collmenter (4-2, 3.50 ERA) will get the start for the D-backs. While it seems like Collmenter has pitched well recently, he hasn't been at his best on the road. Dating back to previous seasons, the Diamondbacks have won only 4 of his last 14 road starts. Tonight he faces a very dangerous and offensively potent team at a hitters' ball park. The Colorado Rockies have scored 285 runs so far this season which puts them first in the National League! They also lead the majors in batting average and slugging percentage! This is all capped off by the great play of SS Troy Tulowitski. Tulowitski is having an MVP caliber season and continues to be the focal point of this offense. Collmenter is coming off the very first complete game of his career and if his arm is experiencing any kind of soreness, the Rockies are just the team that will make opposing pitchers pay. It's worth mentioning that Michael Cuddyer is a .333 lifetime hitter against Collmenter and pitchers often find themselves in a let-down spot after a career milestone.
Vegas has set the total runs for this game at 10.5 runs which means that they are expecting a slug fest. In a battle of offenses, there are very few teams in the league that can keep up with the Rockies let alone in their own house. Arizona has had a poor season. They have talent but they have also been the epitome of inconsistency this season. The D-backs did manage to put one over on the Rockies last night but that was the Rockies first game back from a 9-game road trip! With a day to adjust to being back home and coming off of a defeat, we expect the Walt Weiss' team to bounce back as they often do. This is a very good price to lay with a dominant and motivated home team. Take the Rockies
Other notable facts to consider:
- Colorado is 12-2 in home games when the total has been set at 10 or 10.5 runs!
- Colorado is 7-2 in their last nine home games against a team with a winning road record.
- Arizona is 4-10 in Collmenter’s last 14 road starts!
#2: Take Detroit Tigers on the Money Line (-110) against Toronto Blue Jays risking 2%
(Porcello and Dickey must start)
Game 2 of the series between the Tigers and the Blue Jays takes place tonight. Last night was a close 0-0 contest game all the way up until the 9th inning when both teams suddenly exploded for a combined 8 runs! That goes to show that no matter what the score of the game, it is never over until the 3rd out in the bottom of the 9th inning. The Tigers will be looking for revenge and they are likely to get it tonight.
Rick Porcello gets the start for Detroit tonight. Porcello has been one of the more consistent pitchers in their rotation with an 8-2 record and 3.68 ERA this season. Detroit has quietly won 8 of his last 10 starts and has provided the hurler with plenty of run support. For the Blue Jays, they will send veteran R.A. Dickey to the hill. Dickey is 5-4 with a 4.54 ERA so far this season.
Where Dickey has really struggled has been on the road. In 4 games away from the Rogers Center, Dickey is winless, going 0-3 with a 7.06 ERA! He is also coming off a pretty poor performance his last time out as he gave up 10 hits and 5 earned runs in just 5 innings of work! Dickey has given up at least 1 home run in each of his last 3 starts and against the potent lineup lof the Tigers; that spells trouble!
The Tigers like the Blue Jays are one of the most offensively dangerous teams in the league. They have a batting lineup of power hitter after power hitter which include Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera! Martinez had six multi-hit games in their last 10 games while Cabrera has homered in 3 of their last 7 games. Despite how well these two have been playing the Tiger's offense has somewhat struggled. They've scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 12 games and have lost 3 consecutive games. In a long regular season, all teams will go through some rough times; some defensively and some offensively. And yet despite their recent struggles, they are still one of the very best baseball teams. They have the ability to light up the scoreboard with one swing of the bat and that makes them incredibly dangerous. The Tigers are batting a combined .351 with 27 hits, 4 homers and 12 RBIs in 77 at-bats against Dickey and could be in for a big offensive outing tonight!
Even though Detroit has been struggling, they have still managed to win 9 of the last 12 matchups with the Blue Jays and we are getting a very good price with an excellent team. The Tigers have shown their support for Porcello when he takes the mound and we expect more of the same tonight. Dickey has struggled on the road going back to even last season and this is the Tigers' chance to break out of their offensive funk. Take Detroit at this cheap price..
Other notable facts to consider:
- The Blue Jays are 3-7 in Dickey's last 10 road starts.
- Tigers are a perfect 7-0 in Porcello's last seven starts in the 2nd game of a series!
- Rick Porcello's team is 10-0 after a road start in which he had more walks than strike-outs!
- Tigers are 6-0 in Porcello's last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150!
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