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July 6th 2014 - Posted at 11:00 AM ET

ATTENTION: The picks will be posted at 3:00 PM ET from Monday July 7th to Saturday July 12th.

Take Detroit Tigers (+107 underdogs) on the Money Line against Tampa Bay Rays risking 2%
(Porcello and Price must start)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers conclude their 4-game series tonight. The Rays have been playing their best baseball of the season over the last week and are currently riding a hot streak but we believe that will end tonight. For as good as the Rays have been recently playing, Detroit pitcher Rick Porcello has been exceptional over the course of the season.

Porcello is 11-4 and has been nothing short of dominant in his last 3 starts! Porcello has not given up a run in his last 24 innings of work and is coming off 2 consecutive complete game performances! He navigated the offenses of Cleveland, Texas and Oakland during his scoreless streak. The Tampa Bay Rays, until recently had been one of the worst offensive teams in the league and we expect them to regress to that, at least temporarily for today’s game. 

David Price will take the mound for Tampa tonight and while he is a great pitcher, there have been a lot of distractions for him to deal with in regards to possible trade rumors. Price is a left handed pitcher and Detroit has feasted on lefties all season long, going 18-8 against southpaws! 

The Detroit Tigers have dropped the last two games against the Rays and with his being the 4th and final game, this is their chance to at least salvage the series and tie it up. The Tigers offense has been somewhat silent over the last couple of game after exploding for 8 runs in the series opener against another southpaw in Eric Bedard! We expect them to do just enough against Price tonight.

The Rays still have a long way to go in order to get themselves back into contention for a playoff spot, while Detroit currently leads their division. The Tigers have played a little bit below their potential recently and Tampa has been playing above theirs. Things should regress back to the mean and with Porcello pitching the way that he has been, it is hard to go against him. This is good value on Porcello, who the Tigers have always supported on the mound. The price on Tampa has been inflated due to their hot streak. Take Detroit at this price while you still can.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Tampa Bay is just 23-33 in night games this season!
  • Rick Porcello is 52-25 when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
  • Rick Porcello is 8-0 versus an American League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season!

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