January 31st 2014 - Posted 5:00 PM Eastern Time
There are two bets risking 4% tonight.
We're extremely excited for this weekend! Super Bowl is almost here and we're finishing the NFL season riding a hot extended 15-6-2 streak! Last year we were on the correct side with Baltimore Ravens and we're confident of repeating that again this year.
Meanwhile the good news that we have been promising our loyal long-term clients is nearly here as well and will be announced very soon!
#1: Take Toronto Raptors at +1.5 spread against Denver Nuggets risking 2%
The Raptors have been one of the surprising teams this season and after a bit of a struggle in the early part of the season, Toronto has found its team chemistry and are playing their best basketball of the season. Tonight they have a chance to keep their impressive run going as they head to the Pepsi Center to take on a struggling and injury-filled Nuggets team.
The Denver Nuggets have been an inconsistent up and down team this season and are no longer the dominant home team that they were under George Karl. They are in fact coming off a home loss to the Charlotte Bobcats. Injuries have had a lot to do with their struggles but they are far from over. Danillo Gallinari going out for the season early on was a huge blow but still repairable. But now with PG Ty Lawson hampered by a sore shoulder, Nate Robinson sidelined with a knee sprain and even Andre Miller sitting out due to personal reasons, the Nuggets actually have NO ONE to properly run the point and orchestrate their fast-break offense. The style of offense that Denver runs needs a good Point-Guard. That is the key position in their offense and coach Brian Shaw has admitted that. When superstars go down with injuries, it's nice to be able to lean on your defense to keep you in games but the Nuggets cannot really do that as they are giving up an average of 103.1 points per game. They rely too much on their offense and when it struggles as it is likely to do tonight, so do the Nuggets.
Meanwhile, the Raptors have won four of their last five and are coming off a blowout win over the Magic thanks to 33 points and 11 assists from Kyle Lowry and 22 points from the under-rated Amir Johnson. Lowry is quickly establishing himself as a superstar and is hopeful of making the Eastern All-Star team. He has been on fire recently and has shown great leadership in the process. Toronto will no doubt have the edge when it comes to guards in this game and it is going to be tough for a porous Nuggets defense to stop them.
The Raptors are playing with a lot of confidence right now and are finding ways to win games with an efficient offense and a stingy defense that ranks 3rd in points allowed. They found a way to win without their best player DeMar DeRozan in their last 2 games and should have no problem handling a beat up Nuggets squad tonight. This is a deep team with a lot of talent whose problems were mostly 'mental' in the past. This season however they are finally showing their mental toughness and proved it by going to hostile Brooklyn and beating their closest division rival without their best player in a closely contested game that they would have normally lost in previous years. DeRozan is expected to play tonight but even if he doesn't, the Raptors should be a handful.
The Nuggets have actually had quite a bit of success against Toronto in the Pepsi Center in years past, but with both of these teams heading in opposite direction, this is the perfect time for the Raptors to break the cycle and get revenge on this depleted squad. Ty Lawson was leading this Nuggets team averaging nearly 18 points and 9 assists but is expected to miss this game! What makes it hard to manage is that they are also missing their backup players in the PG position and Randy Foye will most likely start as PG out of position. He should do a decent job but will find it tough against Lowry and they will miss his production as a SG. The Raptors should win this game outright and the extra point and a half is simply an added bonus.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Raptors at 16-7 ATS away from home this season!
- Raptors are 9-1 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog!
- Raptors are 5-1 ATS after allowing 85 points or less this season.
- Denver is just 4-14 ATS as a favorite at Pepsi Center this year!
- Denver is a terrible 1-9 ATS on Friday nights this season.
#2: Take the UNDER 211.5 Total in Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers risking 2%
The Philadelphia 76ers have gotten a reputation of being a team that doesn't like to play a lot of defense given the fact that they have allowed teams an average of 109 points per game this season. Because of this, the linemakers are constantly forced to lay out inflated numbers when it comes to Totals in games involving the 76ers. Recently however, they had inflated the numbers a little too much and that caused an uncharacteristically large number of "UNDERs" to appear. While the Philly defense is still poor, they have only been allowing opponents to barely break the century mark when that was a rare occurence in the early part of the season. Their main contribution to the totals staying low has been their lack of offense recently. Over the last 13 games, Philadelphia has scored an average of just 95 points per game which is about 6 points lower than their season average. While that may not seem like a lot, when the linemakers are consistently putting out 210+ point totals, it makes a difference.
The Atlanta Hawks are the better team but still a mediocre one this season. They have been good enough to beat the lower tiered teams but often not good enough to hang with the elite. Al Horford went down earlier this season and that has really hurt the Hawks' offensive production. Jeff Teague has also been dealing with some nagging injuries and may sit out for this game as well. Not having Al Horford reduced the production of the Hawks but to have the PG (Teague) missing or at less than 100%, should further hurt the Hawks' offense and lower the tempo at which Atlanta normally plays.
These two teams have played in some high scoring affairs recently
but while that may once again be the case tonight, we believe this number
is again a couple of baskets too high just like last night's Clippers
vs. Golden State game. Neither team are particularly efficient from
the foul line either and that should help the 'Under'. We wouldn't be
surprised to see one of these teams fail to reach 100 points tonight.
Take the Under.
Other notable facts to consider:
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home!
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 10 games!
- Michael Carter Williams has shot only 33% from the field recently!
- The 76ers are 6-0 to the UNDER since back in 2011 after a win in which Spencer Hawes was their top scorer.
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