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January 22nd 2014 - Posted 5:00 PM Eastern Time

There are two bets risking a total of 4% tonight.


#1: Take the UNDER 205 Total in OKC Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs risking 2%

This is a marquee matchup between two of the top teams in the league and a game that almost always promises to be exciting from start to finish. These two teams are two of the most dynamic and efficient offenses in the league. Typically when two offensive teams match up, people expect an offensive display but that rarely turns out to be the case. Usually it is the defenses that take over and that has been the case in this series as well since 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams has fallen comfortably 'Under' the posted total.

Over the last 3 meetings in San Antonio, Spurs have scored an average of 97 points against OKC while the Thunder are closely behind at 96.6.
These teams are fairly even but the defenses have really stepped up in these bigger games. Both team can be so efficient with the basketball that it only makes sense that Scott Brooks and Greg Popovich emphasize the important of sound defensive principles. It has typically been the team who has gotten the "big stops" that has won the game in this series and tonight should be no different.

Oklahoma City also recently defeated the Spurs out in San Antonio back in December so this will be a revenge game of sorts for the Spurs. In that game the Spurs defense was hit for an uncharacteristic 113 points so we expect a much better defensive effort from them tonight. Not many teams are able to survive a shootout style of game with OKC and we believe the Spurs realize that as well. And at the same time Kevin Durant has been on fire recently but can't be expected to continue hitting 40+ points each and every game. There is no doubt that OKC's offensive production has suffered in the absence of Russell Westbrook.

Defense will be the name of the game tonight as both teams struggle to make it to 100 points landing just below the posted total. If this game doesn't go to overtime which isn't likely, it should stay 'Under' and disappoint 90% of public who are blindly betting the 'Over' simply because they hope to watch a high-scoring game in what is the biggest game of the night between two excellent teams.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • The Under is 3-1 in OKC road games where the total is between 200 and 205.
  • The Under is 4-2 when the Spurs have been listed as 3.6 to 6.5 point favorites at home this season.
  • OKC games have gone 'Under' 12 out of the last 14 times following 3 or more consecutive home games.
  • The total has stayed 'Under' in OKC's last 3 road games.

#2: Take Dayton at -1.5 spread against VCU (VA Commonwealth) risking 2%

VCU has made a name for itself over the last couple of years during its time under Shaka Smart, particularly at the defensive end of the court. This year has been no different as the Rams are limiting foes to 64.9 ppg. What has changed is their struggles when shooting the basketball. As a team VCU is making only 42% of its shots and even worse on the road which has forced them into some close games recently. Last time away from home, the Rams lost by 10 points to a solid George Washington team. They have regularly underperformed on the road against "sound" basketball teams and that is exactly what Dayton is.

Dayton started the season off in impressive fashion this year and even spent some time in the national rankings. They have cooled off somewhat since conference play has started and now desperately need a win to keep their hopes for the Big Dance alive. The Flyers are a tough team at home and sport an overall 8-2 record in their venue! They have the makeup to give this smaller VCU team fits down low and off the glass.

As good as VCU is defensively, Dayton is a team that plays good defense as well limiting opponents to just 67 points per game and 42% FG shooting for the season. Those numbers improve further on their home court. The Flyers are also one of the better offensive teams in the A-10, ranking third in scoring at 76 points per game and second in field goal percentage at just under 48%! Offensively the edge should go to Dayton in this matchup and that should be the difference.

Last year's meeting was the first between these two schools in conference and VCU walked away with a decisive victory. This season however we believe the Flyers will get their revenge. VCU's last true road win was at Belmont on December 1st! Side with Dayton as their home court advantage will be the clincher.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Dayton is 7-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.
  • VCU is just 2-10 ATS in road games over the last two seasons!
  • VCU is 0-3 ATS vs conference opponents this season.
  • Dayton is 33-14 ATS after playing two straight road games in recent years.
  • Dayton is 12-3 in its last 15 home games.



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