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January 12th 2014 - Posted 11:00 AM Eastern Time

SPS is now 13-5-2 in its last 20 NFL bets and will be celebrating another winning week regardless of what happens today!

With a win, we will replicate last week's excellent 6-units of profit but with a loss, it'll still be a winning week and something positive to build on.

The long awaited exciting news which we've had to delay for the past few weeks will also be likely announced next week!


Take Denver Broncos at -8 spread against San Diego Chargers risking 2%

Today's matchup between the Broncos and the Chargers is the rubber match between these two teams. As divisional rivals, these two teams have already squared off twice this season with each team winning on the road. San Diego most recently knocked off the Broncos in Denver back in Week 15. While many will look at that victory as a reason to back the Chargers today, we actually think that win hurts them in this spot. San Diego was the team that snapped the Broncos' 14-game home winning streak! Denver ended up 7-1 at home this season with each of those 7 victories coming by double-digits! San Diego is a team that is surging at the moment but the revenge factor is not something that can be overlooked in this situation. Denver was also without Wes Welker that day but he will play today.

A lot has been said about Peyton Manning and his struggles during postseason play. They are well documented but Manning is arguably one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game and he has gone on record stating that he is looking to shake all of the negative stigmas that are tarnishing his legacy. He will get his opportunity today against division rivals. There is no doubt that Manning and the entire coaching staff have been reviewing tape of their loss to San Diego during the bye week to shore up the mistakes made in that game to ensure they won't happen again today. Look for the Broncos to play much better today!

Besides seeking revenge against the Chargers, this is also the exact week in the season last year when the Broncos infamously lost to the Ravens after a hail mary pass was completed to Jacoby Jones with under 30 seconds left to play! The Broncos were big favorites that day too and will be keenly aware of the situation that they are in today and we believe that will be the factor that keeps them extra focused. John Fox's team is in a unique position to avenge two of their 3 losses this season. Playing the Chargers today will give them their first opportunity and if they happen to get past them which we expect them to, they will get to face New England at home in the AFC Championship game! It should be noted that the Broncos had an uncharacteristically poor game on the ground in their last meeting with the Chargers as they only had 18 total rushing yards! We don't expect that to happen again today.

Having the extra week to rest has also allowed the Broncos to heal up some of the nagging injuries that have plagued them this season. They will have their full assortment of offensive weapons today. This is an offense that will go down in history as arguably the greatest offensive team in history. They broke the record for the most total points in a season and are the first team in history to have 5 players score 10 touchdowns in a season! Denver can be just as dangerous running the football as they are with Peyton Manning passing.

San Diego may also have cause for concern today as Ryan Matthews was injured in the second half of last week's game! Matthews has been a key contributer and if he doesn't play today it will be a huge loss to their rushing game. Even if he does play, he will not be 100% and as effective as he has been.

At the end of the day, this really is the Broncos' game to lose. They have only been held to under 30 points three times this season. Their offense can put points on the board in a hurry and they finish drives with touchdowns. With the motivation of revenge and Peyton Manning's drive to win big playoff games, we expect to see them back at their best. Denver should score early and often and will probably win this game by double digits. Lay the points.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • The Broncos were listed as a single-digit home favorites just twice this season and won both times by double digits against the Ravens and the Chiefs.
  • The Broncos are 15-1 ATS after 2+ weeks of rest!
  • The Broncos are 15-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons!
  • John Fox is 21-4 ATS (84%) after 2 or more straight games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as a NFL head coach!
  • Teams that had a losing record last year and are off an upset underdog win have come back down to earth. (Terrible 1-13 record and only 3-11 ATS!)



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