January 6th 2014 - Posted 5:00 PM Eastern Time
Sports Profit System will finish the NCAA college football season as #1 with the highest profit regardless of what happens tonight!
Just shy of hitting an incredible 60% in the regular season, our record
stood at a fully documented and completely transparent 38-26-1.
We started Bowl games poorly but have now won 8 of the last 10 and are looking to finish on a high tonight!
January is the month in which we have historically found our rhythm in basketball and gone on to achieve great things! We expect the same this year and are confident of having a great opening month to the year.
Take the UNDER 68 Total in Florida State vs. Auburn risking 2%
There are many people who expect this to be a high scoring game given the potency of the offenses and while that is indeed true, neither Florida State nor Auburn have the kind of defensive unit that will fold under the bright lights of the national stage. Both teams have played their share of potent offenses this season and each time, they have shown their "bend but don't break break" mentality. Florida State actually leads the nation in scoring defense this season allowing opponents to score just over 10 points per game! Florida State also held 12 of their 13 opponents to seventeen points or less! The Seminoles' defensive line and secondary are extremely big and agile and matchup well with the Auburn O-line.
We are expecting that the first quarter of this game will be more of a "feeling out process" with neither team wanting to take too many chances early, especially given the long layoff. This should feature both defenses stiffening up when tested on 3rd down and forcing some early three and outs. While the Seminoles and the Tigers have the offensive firepower to rack up big points, the most each program should hope for in the first quarter is a touchdown apiece.
Once both teams find their comfort levels, which we feel should happen in the late part of the first / early part of the second quarter it will be time for Jameis Winston to let things open up offensively and show everyone why he is the best QB in the nation. We should start to see Florida State getting into a rhythm and putting some more points on the board.
Auburn should also be able to make some adjustments and begin to move the ball a little more efficiently than in the early going. Auburn will slowly start making strides in the ground game and Nick Marshall will more than likely start finding some yards with the play action pass. We expect Auburn to score a touchdown, either on a broken play or a long sustained drive at some point in the second quarter which could end the half. Gus Malzahn's team has showed all season long that they have been excellent at making second half adjustments. Auburn will come into the third realizing that they simply won't be able to keep pace with the Seminoles in this game score for score. The Tigers' best chance is more than likely going to be owning the time of possession and limiting the opportunities that FSU gets.
The 4th quarter is where the game is going to be won but with the lack of a proper passing game, we are expecting Auburn to find themselves struggling a bit to sustain drives especially if they are trailing and the pressure is on. The Florida State defense will more than likely clamp down in the 4th quarter in order to protect their likely lead. We should also see Winston handing the ball off to Devonta Freeman more often to wind the clock down and speed the game up. The total may even reach the 60's but the Florida State defense has been sensational all season long and should be up to the task tonight as well. If they can find a way to slow down Mason and Marshall, we don't see Auburn finding the endzone all that often and the rushing game should take precious time off the clock for us.
Many casual fans have a bad habit of blindly betting the 'Over' regardless
of the what the posted total is in championship games because they hope
to see a high-scoring game. Line-makers know all about that tendency and
sometimes inflate the line by a few points for these 'big' games resulting
in those tickets crashing and burning. Tonight despite the inflated
line, over 70% of the bets have been on the 'Over' and we're not surprised.
But while this should be an entertaining game and feature some good
offensive plays, we feel 68 is simply too high and expect it to stay
in the low 60's or maybe even 50's.
Other notable facts to consider:
- The Under is 9-2 the last 11 times Auburn has faced an ACC opponent.
- The Under is 14-7 in Florida State last 21 bowl games.
- The Under is 19-9 the last 28 times Florida State has played against an SEC opponent.
Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.