February 27th 2014 - Posted 05:00 PM Eastern Time
Patience and discipline are key to success. Sports Profit System is a remarkable 11-3-1 in its last 15 picks!
There is one pick tonight.
Take Brooklyn Nets at -2 spread against Denver Nuggets risking 2%
The Nets come into this contest after getting completely blown out last night against the Portland Trailblazers. Even without LaMarcus Aldridge in the line-up, the Blazers completely dominated the Nets in every area and Brooklyn suffered an embarrassing 44-point defeat. While that was an ugly loss for the Nets, the quick turnaround will have no doubt altered some of the betting public's perception on tonight's game. The Nets were +4 underdogs yesterday and today they are -2 favorites after such a humiliating loss; that alone speaks volumes. While many won't touch the Nets because of last night's game, we actually see this as a great opportunity.
Last night the Nets were out-hustled, out-coached and just flat out outplayed by Portland. The Denver Nuggets are not on the same level as the Trailblazers. This Nets team has a lot of veterans on the roster who no doubt have a lot of pride in their game. Losing a game in that fashion certainly does something to one's motivation. This Nets team hasn't been blown out like this often; in fact they have only suffered a 20+ point defeat twice previously this year and they have historically bounced back well strong. The Nets lost by 21 to the Spurs earlier this year and bounced back big in their very next game to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder outright! A few weeks later, the Nets were blown out by the Thunder but fought the Pacers to the very end the following night narrowly losing by a single point. This is a team that has used ugly losses as fuel for fire and immediately bounced back!
The Nets are still very much in the thick of the playoffs hunt but need to start compiling some wins as they push closer to the end of the season.
After a performance like last night and now playing against what should be an "inferior" opponent; this is exactly the type of game that the Nets need to win. The Nuggets have lost 8 of their last 10 games with their lone win during that span coming against the lowly Milwaukee Bucks. This has been a disaster of a season for Denver and one that more than likely everyone from the coaching staff to the players on the court would like to forget. Even from watching the body language of the players on the court, a majority of the time they are simply going through the motions of playing and seem disinterested in the game themselves. They lack motivation, something that Brooklyn should not lack tonight. Head Coach Brian Shaw even tried to "motivate" his team by ripping into them publicly recently, how did the team respond? By losing 109-95 at home to the Sacramento Kings. It is clear that this team is close to "packing it in" for the season.
Jason Kidd did something rather ingenious last night. Once he saw how badly his team trailed, he decided to pull most of his starters and allowed them to rest, knowing full well that game was already out of reach. No player on the team played more than 27 mins last night so that they would be fresh for this winnable game against Denver tonight. Back to back games can be tough but what Kidd did was incredibly smart. It should also be noted that Road favorites coming in without rest have actually been profitable going 39-28-1 ATS this season!
This is also a revenge game for the Nets after the Nuggets defeated them in Brooklyn back in December. Those were two completely different teams at that time, with the Nets still trying to deal with injuries and team chemistry while the Nuggets were rolling and healthy at the time. In that game Ty Lawson, Nate Robinson and Darrell Arthur combined for 32 points while the Nets were without Paul Pierce, Deron Williams and Kirilenko! Now the situation is somewhat reversed. The Nets are the team that is finally healthy with only Brook Lopez out, while injuries have destroyed the Nuggets' hopes. Denver will be without those three key players tonight and to make matters worse, they will also have to do without the services of the under-rated Wilson Chandler. Meanwhile Danilo Gallinari and McGee still remain sidelined. The Nuggets who used to be one of the deepest teams in the league are now one of the thinnest and without their best offensive players.
This is an opportunity where we feel that from an emotional and motivational standpoint, the Nets are the team that has all of the advantage. While both teams have been struggling, sometimes it is the intangibles surrounding a game that provide significant edge and we feel that is the case here. The Nets should bounce back and put on a much improved performance against the struggling injury-riddled Denver Nuggets tonight.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Brooklyn is 4-2 SU & ATS this season after scoring 85 or less points this season.
- Denver is a terrible 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games!
- Brooklyn is 11-5 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points this season!
- Brooklyn is 6-3 ATS as a road favorite of 3 or less points over the last 3 seasons.
- Denver is 8-20 as an underdog this season!
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