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February 23rd 2014 - Posted 11:00 AM Eastern Time

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Take the UNDER 213.5 Total in LA Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder risking 2%

An afternoon marquee NBA game between two of the top and highest scoring teams in the Western Conference! We have had quite a bit of success betting the Under in selected spots recently and we feel that this is another game where the Total has been inflated a bit.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming into this game with the Clippers fresh off a big home loss to the Miami Heat. In that game the Heat were able to shutdown the Thunder offense while completely shredding the defense. The reinsertion of Russell Westbrook and that fact that the Heat were on a revenge mission may have had something to do with that loss, but we do expect the Thunder to have a more concentrated effort on the defensive side this afternoon to prevent the Clippers from doing what Miami was able to do so easily last time out. Scott Brook's team is not the type that often commits the same mistakes in consecutive games and we fully the Thunder to make defensive adjustments for this contest. 

The Clippers for the most part have been a dazzling team on the offensive side of the ball, but the Thunder have been one of the few teams in the league who have been able to hold the Clippers below their season average. The last time these two teams met in Oklahoma City, the Thunder were able to hold the Clippers to just 91 points in a 105-91 victory! It's worth noting that the Total for that game was set a 212.5 which is similar to the one set this afternoon. 
The line-makers have steadily increased the total in this matchup given the fact that 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams has gone over the posted number. By increasing the total the odds makers are simply trying to even-out the statistics, but the last meeting they went a bit too far as the total fell 16.5 points shy of the mark. They lowered the opening total just a bit for this game but we feel that number was still a bit too inflated. 

The public has had an effect on this line and has bet the 'Over' so much that it now currently sits at 213.5 and even 214 in other popular sportbooks! That has opened up extra value as people are expecting an offensive showcase between two top teams. As we have said previously, typically when two offensively minded teams matchup together, the offenses usually cancel each other out and it becomes more of a defensive battle. We expect that to be the case against this afternoon.
If this game doesn't go to overtime, we feel that this number is just a couple of baskets too high and should stay under the inflated total. Take the Under.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • The Under is 3-1 when Oklahoma City is coming off a loss by 10 or more points this season.
  • The Under is 5-2 when Oklahoma City comes in after 2 or more days of rest this season.
  • The Under is 4-1 when Oklahoma City is a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season.

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