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February 21st 2014 - Posted 05:00 PM Eastern Time

Sports Profit System is now 6-2-2 in its last 10 picks.

The perfect Thursday night brought us 4 winners but as impressive as Miami Heat and the 'Under' were in that game, what was even more eye-catching was the total in the Golden State vs. Houston Rockets game since it stayed 'Under' by 11 points even after 5 minutes of over-time and countless free-throws!

Tonight the focus is on NBA again and there are two bets risking 4% in total.
 

#1: Take Orlando Magic at +3.5 spread against New York Knicks risking 2%

This is an interesting matchup and one that we feel is dangerous for the Knicks. Much has been made this season about the New York Knicks and their struggles this season. After having a dominating season last year and making the playoffs, this season couldn't have gone much worse for the Knicks. Their struggles on the road have been highly publicized and justified by their 9-15 road record this season. The Knicks did manage to pick up a rare road win in their last game when they traveled to New Orleans to take on another under-achieving team in the New Orleans Pelicans and even then the Knicks narrowly came away with a victory. Prior to that win however, New York had dropped their previous 5 straight on the road.

Tonight they travel once again to take on another unassuming team in the Orlando Magic. We can be honest here, the Magic will not be making the playoffs this season. They still have not quite rebuilt after losing Dwight Howard a couple seasons ago, however they are getting closer to having the talent in place, it is now more of getting the chemistry together. It is very easy to look past the Magic, especially this season and especially for the Knicks who have had some success against the Magic in the past, but looking past them is a mistake. Just ask teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers. 

This Magic team is finally healthy. Vucevic and Tobias Hill are beasts down low and Victor Oladipo is proving to be quite a force for a rookie. The problem with the Knicks is that they have been hampered by injuries. Kenyon Martin is out, Andrea Bargnani is out as is Iman Shumpert. Those injuries leave some big holes down low that the Magic could exploit. Amare Stoudermire is listed as questionable tonight and may well play but he has been dealing with a knee injury and there is no question he won't be at 100%. We feel that this is actually a very favorable matchup for the Magic tonight. 

Orlando dropped a close decision to the Memphis Grizzlies in their latest home game. Defense was and always has been the key for the Grizzlies and their grinding defense was able to hold off the Magic, however prior to that game, the Magic did pull a couple of major upsets on their home court coming away with back to back victories over the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder; two elite teams in the league all fell into the trap of overlooking the Magic. We feel the same could happen to the Knicks tonight.

The Knicks also have a bigger game on tap for tomorrow night as well as they travel to Atlanta to take on the Hawks. Both the Hawks and Knicks are vying for one of the final spots in the Eastern Conference come playoff time so tomorrow's night game means quite a bit more to the Knicks than beating up a team whom they have beaten up in the past, if they get caught looking ahead, they could find themselves on the receiving end of another road loss. 

We feel that the Magic have the capability to win this game outright and may be catching the Knicks is an unfavorable spot. The Magic have pulled off "upset" wins over much tougher competition and if they come into this game focused, as we expect them to then they may be able to get another one over a much bigger named Knicks team. Even if the Magic fall short, we believe it would be in the final possession or so and the 3.5 points will likely come into play. Take the generous points. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • The Magic are 10-0 ATS since Feb 13, 2012 at home after a game in which their field goal attempt to turnover ratio was at least eight!
  • The Magic are 4-1 SU and ATS in home games when the total is set between 195 and 199.5 points this season!
  • Knicks are 0-4 SU and ATS in road games when the total is set between 195 and 199.5 points this season!
     

#2: Take Phoenix Suns at +1.5 spread against San Antonio Spurs risking 2%

The San Antonio Spurs will once again be without the services of Tony Parker tonight as they head to Phoenix to take on the Suns who are continuing to surprise many people even this late in the season. Not much was expected of the Phoenix Suns this season and their early season success was often questioned by many people. The injury to Eric Bledsoe was supposed to be what brought this team down. However the Suns have proven everyone wrong by adapting and playing as well as any of the "elite" teams in the league, including the San Antonio Spurs. Phoenix has really been playing some solid basketball as of late and for the most part have taken care of business against the teams that they are "supposed" to. This game will prove to be a true test to see where the Suns fit in the Western conference!

The San Antonio Spurs have been perennial contenders for almost as long as we can remember. This is a veteran team that also has a lot of younger talent that is starting to develop. The thing with the Spurs however is that they are also an incredibly "deep" team. Throughout all of the injuries that this team has had, they have shown that their younger players are capable of stepping up and filling the roles of the missing players. 

San Antonio has also gotten the better of Phoenix twice this season. This is the Suns' chance to step up and exact revenge on their Western rivals! 
No team likes to be dominated or get swept in the season series and with the 4th and final game of this series being in San Antonio, the Suns know this is their best chance to avoid the sweep. In their last game, the Suns faced off against the Boston Celtics and even though they secured a 6 point win over Boston, there did appear to be a little bit of complacency going on with some of the Suns players. They were trying to do some "funny" things in that game such as no look passes and alleyoop dunks...things that teams usually only do when the players feel that they have a game firmly in control. Some may look at that as the inexperience of the Suns coming through, but we actually look at that as a sign that this team is full of confidence and truly believed that they were the better team in that game and could secure a win despite all those antics. Confidence is exactly what this team needs at the moment when facing the Spurs. 

Kawhi Leonard is slated to be back in the Spurs lineup tonight after missing some time with a broken finger. Having an offensive playmaker making his return to the lineup doesn't always necessarily guarantee a better offensive performance. We all saw what Russell Westbrook coming back to the Thunder's lineup did for their performance overall last night. While we don't expect Leonard's impact to be quite the same as Westbrook's, there is always some kind of effect on the team's chemistry, at least in the early going. 

These two teams match up well with each other and both seemed poised to make the playoffs. We feel that this is the chance for the Suns to make a statement on their home court against a team that has historically beaten them in the past. We don't believe that the Suns will be lacking any motivation in this game tonight and one thing we have seen is that when this Suns team is focused, they are an incredibly dangerous team. For the Spurs, we wouldn't be surprised if they got caught slightly looking past the Suns, much like many have done already this season and were more interested in ending this road trip and getting a nice 5 days off to rest. We feel that the Suns are more than capable of winning this game outright and like the fact that they are now home underdogs. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Phoenix is 18-9 at home this season. 
  • Phoenix is 17-8 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points per game this season.
  • Phoenix is 6-1 in a home game where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points!
  • Phoenix is 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 vs. Western Conference



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