February 13th 2014 - Posted 5:00 PM Eastern Time
There were originally two bets planned for tonight but one of the games was postponed due to bad weather.
Take Minnesota U at +8.5 spread against Wisconsin risking 2%
In light of Wisconsin's win against Michigan State, it's easy to forget that this is the same team that had dropped its previous three games at home and could have almost dropped a fourth straight. After starting the season off strong, the Badgers have faced several challenges recently, mostly due to their lack of offensive production and the style of basketball the offense is now playing. Wisconsin has evolved into a slow and calculated offense and is extremely methodical with each possession. Time and again we have seen the players hold onto the ball and run the seconds off the shot clock only to throw up a "prayer" as the clock winds down. Thanks to their strong defensive presence and because they are proficient from long range on offense, this style has worked out for them for the most part, narrowly outscoring their opponents while controlling the tempo. The disadvantage with this style of play however is the fact that it often hinders them from gaining any kind of offensive rhythm and extending a lead to double-digits.
Wisconsin has settled for gaining a small lead and relying on their defense to create stops. They have allowed teams to inch back into the game by not being able to break a game wide open. We feel that this will be the case tonight. Minnesota is extremely familiar with Wisconsin and in fact they have beaten the Badgers the last two times these teams have squared off, including earlier this season in Minnesota. While this may be a revenge game for the Badgers, the fact that they are 0-3 ATS this season as 6.5 to 9 point favorites and just 3-7 ATS over the last 3 seasons, shows that they are more interested in simply winning games than by large margins.
Minnesota is a team that can put points on the board, which has been something Wisconsin has been vulnerable to. The Gophers are also extremely aggressive off the glass and had a +10 rebounding margin over Wisconsin in their last meeting. They are a team that is proficient from the foul line connecting on just over 70% of their foul shots. Even in the majority of their losses, Minnesota has been in the game till the very end. Their last 3 losses have all come by less than 8.5 points.
Minnesota has gone through a somewhat rough stretch themselves, losing a few close games, so a win tonight over Wisconsin would be huge for their tournament resume. These teams are pretty evenly matched from a statistical point of view and while Wisconsin has been tough at home, we simply feel that 8 points is too many to give to an opponent who has proven they can even beat the Badgers. It's also worth noting that none of Wisconsin's 3 wins over Minnesota over the last three seasons have been by more than 7 points. Take the generous points with Minnesota as they keep it within single digits.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Wisconsin is 7-17 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
- Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS this season when revenging a road loss to an opponent.
- Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota.
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