August 31st 2014 - Posted at 11:00 AM ET
August was a solid month (as promised) and is coming to an end today.
Given that Monday is a holiday and that there are many afternoon games, picks will be posted at 12:00 PM ET.
Scroll down to view today's pick.
Thursday marked the opening night of the football season and we could not be more excited! Last year was a huge success and those who were with us from Week 1 all the way to the Super Bowl profited greatly and saw Sports Profit System outdo all competitors! We are confident and certain of repeating that feat and welcome back loyal long-term clients who have rejoined us.
Having said that, it is always worth remembering that profiting from sports is a daily grind and no easy task. It is a marathon and not a race and there will be both ups and downs along the way. Those who are realistic, patient and disciplined will reap the rewards. Because much like even championship winning teams, SPS will inevitably have a few bad weeks as well but we win a lot more than lose overall and will be at the very top by February! As such, the real value lies in long term success and results should only be evaluated at the end of the season.
Finally, although it does not affect SPS, we highly recommend that clients place their bets with a book that offers 'Reduced Juice'. Wagering at -105 vig/juice instead of -110 makes a huge difference over the course of a season! It is the primary distinction between clients who profit big and those that profit small since the picks are the same for everyone.
Note: Experienced sports-bettors know the importance of shopping lines. We suggest that you shop for the best lines whenever possible since that half a point or so will sometimes decide the outcome and turn a win into a push or vice versa.
Take SMU at +34 spread against Baylor Bears risking 2%
Many people will remember the Baylor Bears from last season. They had a high-powered offense, fairly solid defense and put points up on the board in a hurry! For all those reasons and the fact that they covered spreads at home, they were a team that the betting public LOVED to back, no matter what the line! A team like that is hard to forget as they absolutely torched the books last season but another group that remembers Baylor are the book-makers! Last season they couldn't make a spread or total high enough to detract bettors. Given the line on tonight's game, this practice has clearly carried over into Week 1 of the new season and we feel that gives SMU a great chance to cover especially given that it is the first game of the season. The public remembers this team and will pay an absolute premium for backing them, the odds-makers know this and have inflated the number on purpose to attract at least some action on the other side.
While Baylor put up impressive numbers last year, they did lose some pieces on both the offensive and defensive side. The Baylor defense was improved last season but they were statistically one of the worst defensive teams in the country previously. They won a majority of their games in shootout fashion. Few had the offensive prowess to go score for score with them but with so many new pieces; we wouldn't be surprised to see their defense regress a bit to that of years past.
Vegas opened this game with Baylor as 31 point favorites and yet the betting public blindly jumped all over them! 31 points is a lot to cover, even for the Bears. This season they will be playing in a new stadium. While it is still a home game, it is an unfamiliar field, which could take a bit of getting used to in the early going. In order to cover this number, it will take a full 4 quarter effort and teams rarely give that when winning with ease. Much like our selection on Miami OH yesterday, we knew that Marshall were the better team but the value lied with the team that no one wanted to take and we took advantage of that. We expect a similar result tonight. SMU is an unassuming team that is often overlooked but they do have a solid coach in June Jones and we don't expect them to just roll over and get crushed.
There are a lot of different variables that come into play when laying this many points. Settling for Field Goals instead of touchdowns can greatly affect a team's ability to cover large spreads. Miscommunications and turnovers can also be a factor. With this being the first game of a new season, we have already seen mistakes in a majority of the games over the last few days. Mental mistakes and a lack of discipline is almost expected in the first game a season and it's those kinds of errors that can cause a team to win by 28 instead of 35.
Motivation and desire to play for all 4 quarters is often lacking in a game that isn't closely contested. We have seen head coaches come out of the gate fast and mount a big lead, only to pull their starters and allow backups to finish the game in order to assess their squad and avoid injuries to key players. This isn't uncommon in openers and we have already seen this a number of times in various games this weekend. Having backups playing often affects the team chemistry and can cause an offense, especially that of one like Baylor to slow down. On defense, it leads to broken coverages and miscommunications. It's those kinds of mistakes that allows a trailing team to score some meaningless points that will not affect the overall outcome but does impact the final score and which team covers the spread. This could be a blowout but we still don't see SMU losing by more than 31 and wouldn't be surprised if they were defeated by 24 to 28 points.
We are not saying that SMU is going to come out and shock the college football world tonight. We are not even saying that this game is going to be close; we honestly don't expect it to be. It will most likely NOT be a fun game for SMU backers to watch. Chances are they will go down in a hole and at some point no longer be covering. However by the time the final whistle goes, we do expect them to be within this very generous number and cover the spread.
Profiting requires not only in-depth sports knowledge but a deep understanding the betting marketplace and the bookmakers' mindset. No college team cost Vegas more dollars than the Baylor Bears last year and for that reason, they are the #1 team most likely to face inflated spreads this year. They know that the majority of the public will be all over them again this season and they are keen to capitalize on that. They have paid special attention to the Bears and inflated the spread on purpose. They set a high opening line and since then, the number has moved up even more all the way to -34! This game will most likely be a blowout but we don't believe it'll be by more than 31 and foresee Vegas getting revenge right out of the gate. The Mustangs also have revenge in mind and should do enough to bury the public tonight. This is simply too many points to lay in the very first game of the season and we suggest taking them.
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