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August 29th 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM ET

With the start of football season, picks will be posted at 5:00 PM ET on weekdays and at 11:00 AM ET on Saturdays and Sundays. 

Scroll down to view tonight's pick.


Thursday marked the opening night of the football season and we could not be more excited! Last year was a huge success and those who were with us from Week 1 all the way to the Super Bowl profited greatly and watched Sports Profit System outdo all competitors! We are confident and certain of repeating that feat and welcome back loyal long-term clients who have rejoined us. 

Having said that, it is always worth remembering that profiting from sports is a daily grind and no easy task. It is a marathon and not a race and there will be both ups and downs along the way. Those who are realistic, patient and disciplined will reap the rewards. Because much like even championship winning teams, SPS will inevitably have a few bad weeks as well but we win a lot more than lose overall and will be at the very top by February! As such, the real value lies in long term success and results should only be evaluated at the end of the season.

Finally, although it does not affect SPS, we highly recommend that clients place their bets with a book that offers 'Reduced Juice'. Wagering at -105 vig/juice instead of -110 makes a huge difference over the course of a season! It is the primary distinction between clients who profit big and those that profit small since the picks are the same for everyone. 

Note: Experienced sports-bettors know the importance of shopping lines. We suggest that you shop for the best lines whenever possible since that half a point or so will sometimes decide the outcome and turn a win into a push or vice versa. Tonight's game is a perfect example of this as currently (at time of release), some books have this total at 56.5 even while some others have it at 56 and 55.5 points.

Take the UNDER 56 Total in Houston vs. Texas San Antonio risking 2%

This is an interesting matchup as the UTSA Road Runners travel across the state to take on Texas rivals, Houston Cougars! UTSA is coming into only their 4th season in the FBS but have made great strides adjusting to the higher level of competition. They are coming off a 7-5 season last year and went 8-4 before that in 2012. For a team that had not had much experience playing at this level, those are solid numbers. This season, head coach Larry Coker is looking to improve that record and this may be the best team he has had to work with. Texas San Antonio is returning 55 lettermen which includes 20 starters from last season's team. Those numbers make UTSA one of the statistically most experienced team in the country!

The Roadrunners did lose their QB and that will hurt them on the offensive side. They have a solid run game with RB David Glasco returning and their offensive line is one of the most experienced in the nation with a combined 143 starts which is good for 2nd in the country! The running game behind their O-line should be the main focus of the Roadrunners this season and the rushing game naturally slows the pace of the game down and burns clock. It also limits the other team’s possessions which is what teams like to do when facing the high powered offense of the Cougars. 

The Houston offense is primarily an air-raid style attack, which means they like to spread the defense and throw the ball down field. They have always been known for high scoring, shootout style games; however that changed somewhat last season. The Houston defense was pivotal in their success and boasted one of the best turnover ratios in the entire country! They have an opportunistic defense that forces teams into poor decision making and anticipates poor throws, often times stalling drives and limiting TDs. This season they have 9 starters back on defense and three of them had at least 109 tackles last year! The Cougar defense was good last season but should be even better this year. 

Meanwhile the Roadrunners defense will be improved as well. Last year they limited opponents to just 26 points per game. This season they return 10 starters and 14 of their top 16 tacklers from last season (2nd in the nation)! They return all 4 defensive linemen, who are all seniors and this is poised to be an experienced and more stout defense.

While both teams have been known for offense, their defenses are under-rated and often overlooked. With the experience on both sides, that is the part that we expect to shine most. The Cougars came away with a win last season in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Roadrunners will no doubt want to gain some form of revenge and the way to do that is by limiting the possessions and amount of points that Cougars put up. We expect both defenses to have some success in limiting damage and holding the other team to field goals and if that's the case, it will be incredibly difficult to reach what we deem a high total for this contest. 

With this being the first game of the season for both teams, nerves and jitters will play a role. Offenses aren't yet crisp and in-sync and some plays that will work later on in the season when the chemistry between all players are fully developed won't work as well tonight. Dropped passes and stalled drives are common place in week 1 and we expect to see it in this high-pressure rivalry game. Even though this is a home game for the Cougars, this is a brand new stadium and this will be their first game in it. Home field does account for something in the world of college sports but the actual field will be foreign to both teams. Defenses are usually ahead of the offense at this point in the season and even though both teams are capable of putting points up on the scoreboard, we believe this is a game that will ultimately go 'Under'.

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