August 26th 2014 - Posted at 4:00 PM ET
Sports Profit System is confident of a strong MLB month in August! There will of course be both wins and losses throughout the 31 days but it will be a solid month when it's all over. Then comes September and it is no secret that football has always been our best sport. We outdo any service that is willing to be honest and transparent with results and enjoyed the highest football profit of all in 2013! Not every single weekend was a good one but NFL and NCAA football were both highly lucrative and brought us a combined 46 units (not factoring in juice) last season!
Take Pittsburgh Pirates on the Money Line (-124) against St. Louis Cardinals risking 2%
(Cole and Lynn must start)
The Pittsburgh Pirates and St Louis Cardinals continue their series from PNC Park tonight. Last night the Pirates let one slip away from them. They took an early lead on a Pedro Alvarez home-run and led all the way until the 7th inning when starter Francisco Liriano was taken out of the game. They were unable to capitalize on Liriano's shutout and an error by National League MVP Andrew McCutchen of all people sealed their fate as they allowed 3 runs in one inning. Last night's blame cannot be placed entirely on the shoulders of McCutchen however. Pittsburgh had numerous opportunities to make John Lackey and the Cards pay right from the very first inning but guys like Neil Walker and Travis Snider contributed very little and either got struck out or grounded into doubleplays! We expect them to be sharper and play with more efficiency tonight.
Much like how John Lackey had some impressive seasonal numbers coming into last night's game, tonight's starting pitcher, Lance Lynn also sports solid numbers. The issue with Lynn however is that while he is having an impressive season, he has been playing a bit over his head. He has been great since the All-Star break but sooner or later his stats are going to regress a bit and we don't see him finishing the season with a better ERA than 3. The fact is that Lynn's WHIP and batting average against is fairly similar to his career averages and yet his ERA is quite a bit lower and that's because he has been able to limit the damage by giving up just 7 homers so far this season. That is a very low number for him and we expect him to allow a few more by the end of the season. It is also worth noting that 6 of those 7 home-runs have come on the road! With power-hitting guys like Alvarez, McCutchen and Marte waiting on deck and fired up from last night, we wouldn't be surprised to see one or more of those players take him deep tonight.
Lynn has also been fortunate to have played a majority of his recent starts at home. On the road, he hasn't been as dominant. He is just 5-5 with a 3.45 ERA and WHIP of 1.404 in eleven highway starts this season. Lynn has also struggled against the Pirates in his career and his lifetime ERA is an unimpressive 5.35 against them! Add to those factors the extra motivation that Clint Hurdle's team should have in bouncing tonight and this could turn out to be another challenging outing for him.
Getting into the bullpen may also prove advantageous for the Pirates tonight. Last night Mike Matheny decided to use the excellent Pat Neshek who has had a truly remarkable season thus far. The Pirates nearly got to him last night and the fact that he could be coming in on short rest means they may get a better opportunity. And if they decide not to use him, other relievers aren't as capable as he is. There is also the closer Trevor Rosenthal, who had been stellar earlier in the season but has been severely overworked recently. Mike Matheny himself has come out and admitted that they have relied on him more often than they would have liked to and that has hurt them and Rosenthal's confidence in the process as he's recently hit a rough patch and given up runs even in the games that he has successfully saved.
The Cardinals will also have to be alert to base-runners as the Pirates have speed and are a great base-stealing team. The Bucs have stolen 39 more bases than the Cards this season and with Molina still out on the sidelines, they don't have the same pick-off power that they normally do. A lack of runs and offense was ultimately the Pirates' undoing last night but we have no regrets on what was a solid pick and once again feel that they hold the edge tonight. Look for them to be aggressive from the get-go, from swinging the bat to running the bases and to be rewarded for it.
Despite winning last night, the Cardinals still have had their issues at PNC Park, losing 12 of the last 18 meeting there. The Bucs are also still one of the very best home teams in the Majors and this is an extremely important matchup for them! The Cardinals are the team that the Bucs are chasing in order to grab at least a Wild Card spot and with Adam Wainwright on the mound tomorrow tonight, this is probably their best chance to get a win. The managed to take 2 of 3 from the division leading Brewers in their last series and it would be a real blow to their playoff hopes to follow that up by losing a home series to a direct NL Central rival. We don't believe that will happen and expect them to do whatever it takes to grab the win.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Cardinals have scored only 84 home runs (fewest in the NL) this season!
- Pirates on the other hand rank 4th in the NL with 121 homers!
- Lance Lynn has had the comfort of making 7 of his last 10 starts at Busch stadium.
- Cardinals have allowed 500 runs while scoring only 493 and currently have a -7 run differential!
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