August 24th 2014 - Posted at 12:00 PM ET
Sports Profit System is confident of a strong MLB month in August! There will of course be both wins and losses throughout the 31 days but it will be a solid month when it's all over. Then comes September and it is no secret that football has always been our best sport. We outdo any service that is willing to be honest and transparent with results and enjoyed the highest football profit of all in 2013! Not every single weekend was a good one but NFL and NCAA football were both highly lucrative and brought us a combined 46 units (not factoring in juice) last season!
#1: Take Chicago White Sox on the Money Line (-114) against NY Yankees risking 2%
(Sale and Capuano must start)
The Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees square off once again for the finale of this series at Yankee Stadium. The White Sox are not making the post-season this year, they have pretty much been eliminated from contention. The Yankees meanwhile hope to have a strong push for a Wildcard spot although their chances are fairly slim as well. The Yankees need wins in order to get there. They have narrowly won 5 of their last 7 games including the first two of this series but will likely find today's game more challenging.
Chris Sale is a truly elite pitcher and a Cy Young candidate! Numbers do not lie. Statistically speaking he is right up there with the likes of Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw! Sale is a strikeout pitcher and has recorded 158 strikeouts in 136 innings of work! He also has great command and has walked only 26 batters all season! As great as his stats are, the issue for him is that he plays on a poor team. The White Sox are about as inconsistent as a team could get. They have power in their lineup in the likes of Jose Abreu and have the ability to put up runs in bunches, but have also seen their bats go silent from time to time. While the offense has been inconsistent, one thing that has remained constant has been the efficiency of Sale. He has an extremely impressive 2.12 ERA through 20 starts this season! In 7 starts on the highway, he has been even more productive as his ERA drops down to a miniscule 1.57! He has also had plenty of success against the Yankees in his career. He is 3-0 in 4 career starts with an ERA of 1.27 and WHIP of 0.706! The last time he saw the Yankees was back on May 22nd when he went 6 strong innings giving up just a single hit and striking out 10!
While it's true that the Yankees have more to play for, it doesn't seem like winning is their only goal today. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Brett Gardner will all be sitting out while the likes of Zelous Wheeler and Brendan Ryan will play! Part of the reason for that is because the aforementioned trio are left-handed and so is Chris Sale but that does still take away from their base-running and top leve experience. The Yankees have a plan to rotate players out in hopes of keeping them healthy if they do in fact make the playoffs. They are keeping some players fresh for tomorrow's challenging game at Kansas City but that strategy may hurt them in today's matchup.
The White Sox have meanwhile have decided to play arguably their strongest lineup and at this point, the players are simply looking to pad their stats or "up" their value while keeping their prides intact. The White Sox bats could find success against lefty Chris Capuano today. Since joining the rotation, Capuano hasn't been anything special on the mound. He has a mediocre 4.15 ERA in his 5 starts and was working out the bullpen earlier in the season. The Yankees are just 1-4 when he has taken the hill. Capuano is getting older and his pitches have lost some of the velocity that they once had which is making him a hittable pitcher. In comparison, he has given up only 33 less hits than Chris Sale but has only worked 62 innings compared to Sale's 136 innings! To say that the White Sox should have an edge on the mound this afternoon would be an understatement.
Vegas opened this up with a -140 price tag on Sale and the White Sox, which was a fair price. Since then, that number has come down nearly 30 cents which has opened up a lot of value on an elite pitcher in the caliber of Sale! We're not fans of Robin Ventura and his team do have some bullpen issues but they should still win this game and this price is simply too good to pass up on. We expect Sale to once again be dominant and the Chicago bats to muster just enough offense against Capuano to give them a close win and avoid the sweep.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Yankees are just 3-11 as a home underdog of +100 to +125 this season!
- White Sox are 9-4 after batting .200 or worse over a 5-game span.
- Only Felix Hernandez has a better ERA than Chris Sale in the American League!
#2: Take Milwaukee Brewers on the Money Line (-137) against Pittsburgh Pirates risking 2%
(Fiers and Worley must start)
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers close their series from Miller Park this afternoon. The Brewers have had a firm hold on the NL Central division for much of the season but a few losses have seen their lead dwindle to just a half a game and the surging Cardinals breathing down their necks. The Brewers have also revived the playoff hopes of Pirates by dropping the first 2 games of this series and are in desperate need of a win in order to remain atop the division and in control.
Milwaukee will be very motivated coming into this one, not only to remain 1st in the division but to avoid a home sweep against a direct NL Central rival! Let's not forget that this is still a very capable team and one that just recently swept the Dodgers in LA! They have a great shot at pulling out a win this afternoon when they send Mike Fiers to the mound. Fiers has been a great replacement for the injured Matt Garza and is making the very most of his opportunity. He’s 3-0 with a phenomenal 0.86 ERA and a 0.524 WHIP! He is also allowing just a .153 on-base percentage over his last three starts. Fiers has been unhittable but while we don't expect that to continue, he should still give the Brewers the pitching edge.
The Pirates will counter with Vance Worley, who is coming off his worst outing of the season. He gave up 9 hits and 6 runs (2 home runs) against the Atlanta Braves and it all started in the very first inning! Worley has had a very good season but might be coming into this game with his confidence shaken. Furthermore, he hasn't had much success against the Brewers in his career which means he may be even more in his head and likely to overthink. This will be his fourth career start against Milwaukee; He’s 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP in those 16.2 innings of work! The Milwaukee bats currently rank 6th in runs scored, 12th in team batting average, 19th in on-base percentage and 5th in slugging percentage this season and are a real threat to give Worley more problems this afternoon.
The Brewers have had a poor showing so far in this series but with so much on the line, we expect them to pull out all stops and do whatever it takes to avoid the sweep against a direct rival! This is also their last home game before a road trip and they realize that they must make the most of it. A loss here would be a huge blow and we don't believe they'll let that happen. The Bucs on the other hand will be going home satisfied even if they lose today (having already won the series) and might be just looking ahead to the big home series opener against the Cardinals tomorrow night! They took the first 2 games but have been a poor road team all year and we expect that to continue today.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Pittsburgh is just 4-10 after 3 or more consecutive wins this season!
- Milwaukee is 5-1 after allowing 10 or more runs this season!
- Pittsburgh is just 16-25 in day games this season.
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