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August 23rd 2014 - Posted at 4:00 PM ET

Sunday's picks will be posted at noon (12:00 PM ET).

There are two separate wagers on the Miami/Colorado matchup tonight. 


Sports Profit System is confident of a strong MLB month in August! There will of course be both wins and losses throughout the 31 days but it will be a solid month when it's all over. Then comes September and it is no secret that football has always been our best sport. We outdo any service that is willing to be honest and transparent with results and enjoyed the highest football profit of all in 2013! Not every single weekend was a good one but NFL and NCAA football were both highly lucrative and brought us a combined 46 units (not factoring in juice) last season!

#1: Take the UNDER 10.5 Total Runs in Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies risking 2%
(Koehler and Lyles must start)

#2: Take Miami Marlins on the Money Line (-105) against Colorado Rockies risking 2%
(Koehler and Lyles must start)

The Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies meet again for Game 2 at Coors Field tonight. It's a well-known fact that Coors Field is a dangerous ballpark for opposing pitchers. This is arguably the most "hitter-friendly" venue in the entire league and where some of the highest scoring ball games happen. For that reason, it is extremely rare to see a game being played in this park valued at any less than 9.5 total runs and such is the case again tonight as the odds-makers are expecting another high scoring affair, setting the total at a combined 10.5 runs! Judging by last night's 13-5 final score, it easy to see why the total is set where it has been but we believe both or at least one of the teams will find it tougher at the plate tonight.

The vast majority of sports bettors are extremely fickle and "reactive". What that means is that they often can't get past the most recent result or streak and let that dictate what they believe will immediately happen again. They often assume that the result will be similar in the following game when in reality that is rarely the case and each and every matchup is completely different. Vegas knows this and takes that into account when setting the odds, lines and totals for the following day. They have a good understanding of where a majority of the action is going to be and adjust the lines accordingly. On many occasions, we have demonstrated that it takes foresight to be on the right side of a game and those who blindly follow past or recent trends end up regretting it. With all 4 Miami/Colorado games going 'Over' so far this season, this is yet another one of those spots in which we feel the public will get burned for jumping on the bandwagon.

The Marlins and Rockies have produced a lot of high-scoring games and have seen an above average amount of 'Overs', it is therefore easy to follow that pattern and many have the inclination to bet the 'Over' for their remaining games. But that is likely to be a mistake at least in this contest and while both offenses are capable of producing runs, one is hampered by injuries and we believe runs will be more limited tonight.

Tom Koehler and Jordan Lyles are both underrated pitchers. They are not household names and many have not heard much about them. Koehler is having a solid season and has made 25 starts this year while Lyles has shown his ability to be dominant at times. He is looking to establish himself as a mainstay in the Rockies rotation and his pitching style works well within the confines of Coors Field. He is developing into much more of a groundball pitcher which allows him to keep ball out of the thin Colorado air. Tom Koehler for the Marlins employs a somewhat similar style and gets a majority of his outs by strikeouts and groundouts. Both pitchers have been good at keeping the ball out of the stands as they have only given up a total of 20 combined homeruns in over 233 innings between them! That is an impressive feat considering the amount of pitches both have thrown this season.   

Rockies and Marlins are both teams that have thrived on the long ball and that is where they have done most of their damage. They have made teams pay for their mistakes and Coors field is one venue where mistakes can be especially costly. However, these two pitchers have done well limiting the damage thus far and we expect that to continue tonight. With that being said, the Marlins should hold an advantage on the mound with Koehler given his past success against the Rockies. He has shown his ability to navigate some of the more potent batting lineups in the league, including these same Rockies. In his career he has an incredible 1.29 ERA in 2 starts against Colorado! In his last outing at Coors Field, he went 7 strong innings giving up just a single earned run. 

Meanwhile, Lyles is coming off a poor start and has been roughed up by the Marlins in his career. He has a terrible 7.36 ERA and 1.455 WHIP. Lyles has given up at least 4 runs in each of his 2 starts against the Marlins. It's worth mentioning however that his 2 starts were in Florida. He has yet to face them in his home ball park and we feel that should produce a better overall outing for him but will likely still not be good enough.

The Marlins are still in contention for the playoffs this season and they must win games like this to stay in the hunt. Injuries have really plagued the Rockies this season with the loss of key bats like Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer! All of these players continue to sit on the sidelines while the Marlins have are playing with a fairly healthy roster. Miami has much more to lose in this game and so we expect a typically inspired effort from Mike Remond's team. Giancarlo Stanton and Garrett Jones have had major success against the Rockies in their careers and should lead their team to another important win.    

These are two offensively capable teams so we do see runs in this game. However, we expect there not to be too many multi-run homers and for the damage to be limited compared to last night. If this game doesn't go to extra innings, we believe it'll have a hard time going over the 10.5 mark. Barring unusual fieldering or throwing errors that put men on base when they shouldn't be there with a grand-slam to follow, we expect the final score to settle somewhere in the 5-3 or 6-3 range with the Marlins staying alive in the post-season hunt while the total stays 'Under'.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • The Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meeting in Coors Field.
  • Marlins have won 9 of their last 13 games!
  • Marlins are 4-1 against the Rockies this season.

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