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August 22nd 2014 - Posted at 4:00 PM ET

Saturday's picks will be posted at 4:00 PM ET.


Sports Profit System is confident of a strong MLB month in August! There will of course be both wins and losses throughout the 31 days but it will be a solid month when it's all over. Then comes September and it is no secret that football has always been our best sport. We outdo any service that is willing to be honest and transparent with results and enjoyed the highest football profit of all in 2013! Not every single weekend was a good one but NFL and NCAA football were both highly lucrative and brought us a combined 46 units (not factoring in juice) last season!

Take Toronto Blue Jays (-125) on the Money Line against Tampa Bay Rays risking 2%
(Stroman and Smyly must start)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays begin a three-game series from Rogers Centre tonight. This could turn out to be an extremely important series for both teams by the time the regular season is wrapping up. It will be hard for either of these teams to catch the division leading Baltimore Orioles, but they are still in the hunt for the second AL Wildcard spot even if Tampa's chances have basically faded by now.

The Rays come into this game off a disappointing homestand. They are 3 games below a .500 record and find themselves near the basement of the division again. After such an impressive second half surge, they have once struggled to maintain the consistency that had gotten them right back in the race. A couple of poor home series and the trade of David Price has put a major damper on their post-season aspirations. Being as far out as they are with only a very marginal chance of making the playoffs, it's time to wonder how much they have left in the tank and if they have accepted their fate. Losing home series to the Yankees and Tigers was a huge blow to their hopes as those two (much like Blue Jays) were direct AL Wild Card rivals! They don't seem to be playing with the sense of urgency that one expects from a team trying to keep its season alive and were extremely fortunate to avoid the sweep last night! 

The Rays pitching staff has really carried the load for the last month, allowing three or less runs in 13 of their last 16 games but it has been their offense that has once again gone cold. While solid pitching and quality outings are nice to have, it often times goes wasted by a lack of offensive production. That seems to be what we are seeing from Joe Maddon's team at the moment. 

The Blue Jays on the other hand still have a decent chance and are in a more desirable position than the Rays. After a solid start to the season and a lengthy winning streak, they had fizzled due to key injuries but they are a team that can get hot and has Edwin Encarnacion back. The Jays have one of the most powerful lineups in the entire league and can light up the scoreboard. Offensively, Jose Bautista has 8 RBIs in his last nine games and Melky Cabrera has 15 hits in his last 10 games! On the season this team has crushed 143 home runs! They are also a squad that has some aggressive base runners in the likes of Jose Reyes and that is another area where they'll have an advantage over the more static Tampa offense.

Meanwhile the Toronto defense has forced opposing teams into a total of 105 double plays this season! In comparison, Rays have forced only 70 DP's, which is by far the lowest in the Majors!  Against a team like Toronto that is capable of getting men on base, the double play ball could be something Tampa really needs tonight. The Jays also comes into this game after a day off which is another plus. That day of rest could be exactly what they needed in order to shore up some issues and make a strong push towards the end of the season.

Tampa comes into this contest on short rest after picking up an extremely strange win against Detroit. Despite only having a single hit in the the game, they were victorious 1-0! They will send Drew Smyly to the mound tonight. Smyly has been a good addition to the Rays in his first 3 appearances but it's still early days. He has had some issues on the road this season and should find this contest more challenging than most. It's also worth noting that the Jays are 27-21 against division opponents this season and will play the majority of their remaining games against other AL East clubs.

Pitching opposite of Smyly will be Marcus Stroman. While Stroman has struggled in some of his recent outings, at home in the Rogers Center, he has been nearly unbeatable. He is 5-1 at home this year with a very impressive 1.62 ERA! The Jays have won 6 of his 8 starts in Toronto. After having a rare poor outing in his last start, we expect him to bounce back and show his quality again tonight. The Rays have struggled at the Rogers Center this season and we expect that to continue tonight. At this price, there is good value with the determined home team. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Tampa Bay is just 4-11 after shutting out their opponent this season!
  • The Blue Jays are a perfect 10-0 since May 15th when their starter went less than 4 innings in his last start!
  • Jose Bautista has reached base safely in 27 consecutive games and 111 of his 120 starts this season!

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