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August 16th 2014 - Posted at 4:00 PM ET

The picks will be posted at noon (12:00 PM ET) on Sunday.


Sports Profit System is confident of a strong MLB month in August! There will of course be both wins and losses throughout the 31 days but it will be an excellent month when it's all over. Then comes September and it is no secret that football has always been our best sport. We outdo any service that is willing to be honest and transparent with results and enjoyed the highest football profit of all in 2013! Not every weekend was a good one but NFL and NCAA football were both lucrative and brought us just over 45 units (not factoring in juice) combined last season!

Take Colorado Rockies (-134) on the Money Line against Cincinnati Reds risking 2%
(Lyles and Axelrod must start)

The Colorado Rockies' struggles this season have been highly publicized. Despite the talent on this team, they have simply not translated that into wins. The Rockies offense has not been an issue as they are scoring an average of 4.6 runs per game and an even more impressive 5.8 runs per game at home in Coors Field! Injuries to key personnel are a big reason for their poor record but the main problem that has truly plagued them is their pitching, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. With Jordan Lyles taking the mound, we expect their struggles in the pitching department to be limited tonight. At nearly 24 years of age, he is still young but a fairly experienced by now and owns a 6-1 record with a 3.70 ERA this season!  At home Lyles has been at his best and he's used to pitching at this hitter-friendly ball park while Axelrod isn't.

The Cincinnati Reds are a team that has its own issues. The Reds are a solid defensive group but their offense has been inconsistent at best and much like the Rockies, injuries have really crippled them. The loss of Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips were a big blow to their hopes. Now their home run leader, Todd Frazier is dealing with back issues and is again questionable for tonight’s contest. The absence of Frazier would be a huge blow for the Reds and even if he does play, he won't be 100%. It's also worth mentioning that Jay Bruce has struggled against Jordan Lyles in his career going just 2-for-11.

The Reds' offensive struggles are nothing new but they have usually combated that with quality pitching. That will most likely not be the case tonight however when Dylan Axelrod makes his debut for the club. Axelrod was called up from the Minors to take the place of injured Homer Bailey in the rotation. He has an 8-8 record with a 4.09 ERA in the Minors. Axelrod does have some Major league experience but his appearances haven't exactly been pleasant ones. He struggled at the White Sox accumulating a disappointing 5.36 ERA in his MLB career and was shipped out in mid July! Now he makes his first start for his new team after they had no choice but to call him up from Triple A to fill the gap.

His presence on the mound could be costly as he will be facing a hard hitting Rockies team in their home park. Last night the Reds had Johnny Cueto on the mound who managed to contain the Colorado bats. Cueto is have a great season and is one of the very few pitchers that has an ERA right around 2.00! Unfortunately for them, Dylan Axelrod is not Johnny Cueto. In the opening game of this series, the Rockies had feasted on the highly touted and young Reds pitcher Alfredo Simon. Simon has some impressive pitches and yet the Rockies lit the Reds up, scoring 7 runs!

The odds-makers decided to make the 47-wins Rockies a fairly significant favorite tonight and that says a lot in itself. They were favored in the opener and won that game easily. They were then significant underdogs last night (for good reasons) and lost. Now tonight they are the favorites again and we believe rightfully so. Even though Colorado are considered a "poor" team this season, that does not mean there is never value in backing them. Public and media perception of them is very low due to their inconsistent performances this season but they are a .500 club at home and have numerous advantages over the Reds tonight. Pitching at Coors Field is difficult and will prove challenging for Axelrod tonight. We expect Colorado to mount some offense against him while Jordan Lyles does enough to get them the win.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • The Reds are 2-15 since April 2013 when they are off a win in which they had at least 3 times as many hits as runs!
  • The Colorado offense leads the National League in batting average, runs scored and home-runs!
  • Jordan Lyles is having the best season of his young career.

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