August 15th 2014 - Posted at 4:00 PM ET
Saturday's picks will again be posted at 4:00 PM ET.
Sports Profit System is confident of a strong MLB month in August! There will of course be both wins and losses throughout the 31 days but it will be an excellent month when it's all over. Then comes September and it is no secret that football has always been our best sport. We outdo any service that is willing to be honest and transparent with results and enjoyed the highest football profit of all in 2013! Not every weekend was a good one but NFL and NCAA football were both lucrative and brought us just over 45 units (not factoring in juice) combined last season!
Take Cleveland Indians (-149) on the Money Line against Baltimore Orioles risking 2%
(Kluber and Chen must start)
Tonight the AL Division leading Baltimore Orioles travel to Progressive Field to open up a series in Cleveland. This pitching matchup is one of the more interesting ones on the card as Baltimore will send their double digit winner Wei-Yin Chen to face off against Tribe Ace, Corey Kluber.
While the fans will no doubt be in for an exciting game, there are numerous factors that point to the Indians coming out on top in this contest. First let's take a look at both of these teams. Baltimore is one of the hottest teams in the league, currently lead their division and are nearly a shoe-in to make the postseason this year! They are 19 games above .500 and have a much better record than the Indians and also start a pitcher who has a 12-4 record and yet they were hefty underdogs! That alone says a lot about how Vegas expect this game to unfold.
Besides the odds themselves, the Indians should have the edge on the mound tonight. Corey Kluber has been nothing short of sensational this season and is 6-0 with an impressive 1.45 ERA in his last 7 starts! It's not just the fact that he has been winning but more so that has been extremely dominant, nearly tossing a no-hitter and striking out 60 batters in his last 53 innings of work! He has only given up a total of 8 combined runs in his last 7 starts!. Teams are simply having a hard time figuring him out and not scoring runs and that's because he's rarely made mistakes this season. He also dominated the Orioles in his last start against them, tossing seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts in a 9-0 Cleveland win back on May 24th in a game that was played at Camden Yards!
Meanwhile, Wei-Yin Chen sports an undeserving 12-4 overall record and yet his ERA and other stats speaks volumes as to how he has actually pitched this season. Chen's ERA is nearly 4 and mediocre. He is a hittable pitcher and has surrendered 141 hits in just under 130 innings of work! He has been very fortunate in some of his starts to have been bailed out by the potent bats of the Orioles lineup. Had it not been for them, Chen could very easily have a .500 record as a pitcher this season. On the road is where he has struggled even more. He may have a 6-2 overall record on the highway, but again his ERA tells a different story. At an ERA of 4.23, those are not numbers that a standard 6-2 pitcher would have! His record is severely inflated at the moment and we don't believe he will be able to rely much on his offense if Kluber continues pitching the way he has been. Chen will have his work cut out for him as the Indians have hit him hard in the past and come into this one ranked 6th in runs scored and 9th in on-base and slugging percentage!
The Tribe themselves are in a much more desperate situation than the O's and are therefore more motivated to get the victory. If Cleveland wants to make the post-season, they are going to have to put together a quality winning streak. There are no games left to spare and they cannot waste opportunities like this with their Ace on the mound. Baltimore has only played one game over the last 3 days and that was against division rivals, the NY Yankees. The O's had come into that contest off a rest day and had struggled in the early going offensively until Adam Jones hit a 3-run home run late in the game to give them the win. After another day off yesterday, Baltimore's mindset and motivation comes into question tonight. They have a healthy lead in the AL East division and are quite safe and very likely to make the playoffs. With series coming up against Cleveland and then the White Sox on deck...not exactly top tier talent, they may get a bit complacent and not be at their best.
Baltimore is a tough team and one that can change the complexion of a game with one swing of the bat but in this particular matchup we expect Corey Kluber and his team to get the better of them. Kluber has been one of the top MLB pitchers this season and is among the best in striking out batters! There's a reason why a division leader opened up as +160 underdogs in this contest! We believe Cleveland who are a much better team at home than on the road are the right side and since the odds have changed and are now much more affordable, there is definite value.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Cleveland is 28-11 in home games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons!
- Cleveland is 4-2 in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
- Chen has a career ERA of 7.62 and a WHIP of 1.308 against Cleveland!
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