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August 13th 2014 - Posted at 4:00 PM ET

Sports Profit System is confident of a strong MLB month in August! There will of course be both wins and losses throughout the 31 days but it will be an excellent month when it's all over. Then comes September and it is no secret that football has always been our best sport. We outdo any service that is willing to be honest and transparent with results and enjoyed the highest football profit of all in 2013! Not every weekend was a good one but NFL and NCAA football were both lucrative and brought us just over 45 units (not factoring in juice) combined last season!

Take Baltimore Orioles (-126) on the Money Line against NY Yankees risking 2%
(Tillman and Pineda must start)

A matchup of division rivals takes place tonight when the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles collide once again at Camden Yards! 
The Yankees come into this game having lost three in a row and now find themselves just four games above a .500 record. They have seen their playoff hopes dwindle with each and every loss in the ultra-competitive AL East and are now 7 games behind the division-leading Orioles! The Yankees have been unlucky with some injuries but every team goes through that; What continues to be a problem is their inconsistent offense. They have produced 3 or less runs in six of their last eight games and have only scored 4 runs in their last three games combined! Their pitching and hitting simply aren't on the same page and that is not a recipe for success. Their starting rotation has a collective ERA of 3.88 which ranks 21st in the Majors and we don't see that improving when they send Michael Pineda to the mound tonight.

Pineda will be making his first start since back in April! Such a long layoff can prove very challenging, not only with his command and composure but even his arm strength. While Pineda's numbers look impressive at first glance, it shouldn't be something that people clamor over. He has had only 4 starts this season (all back in April) and was fortunate enough to have faced the Cubs (twice) and the Boston Red Sox, two teams that have been poor and struggled offensively this season. With the Orioles hitting the ball as well as they have been, this could be an eventful and possibly short night for a pitcher who was suspended earlier in the season. 

The Orioles come into this contest with an 8-3 record in the month of August. They currently lead the AL East division and are 18 games above .500! Their bats are red hot and among the most dangerous in the league. They have produced an impressive 36 runs in their last four games and have accumulated 10 or more hits in 6 of their last 8 games! To say they are seeing and hitting the ball well would be an understatement. It's worth mentioning that the Orioles have won 11 straight games when scoring more than 3 runs! Nelson Cruz has been a scoring machine as of late and has 6 RBIs in his last three games while Adam Jones has racked up 8 hits in his last four games! Then there is Chris Davis, Nick Markakis and several others who are all well capable of hurting a rusty Pineda. 

The pitching staff is also getting it done as they have a collective ERA of 3.66. Tonight they will send Chris Tillman to the hill. Tillman was the Ace of their starting rotation last year and continues to put up impressive numbers in the second half of the season. He's not a flashy or overly impressive pitcher but has shown his ability to manage games and very rarely implodes. In his 25 starts this year, he has only surrendered more than 3 earned runs four times and has a 2.3 ERA since the All-Star break! He has recorded 11 consecutive quality starts and two of those came against the Yankees! He has been especially consistent at Camden Yards and often gives his team a great chance to win. 

It is hard to go against a balanced and power team like Baltimore at the moment. They currently lead the division but we don't see Buck Showalter allowing his squad to get complacent. It's also very rare that a team overlooks an organization like the Yankees. Motivation should not be an issue for either team tonight. Both were off yesterday so they should be rested and ready to go coming into this contest. The difference is that this is the Orioles' last game in Baltimore before a lengthy road trip and they will want to make the most of it! Baltimore is the better team and has a pitcher who is much more confident and prepared coming into this contest. The Orioles have dominated division opponents this season and have also been excellent in close games that have been decided in extra innings or by 1 run! At this reduced price, there is definite value in backing the home team. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Yankees are 4-11 in their last 15 games vs. division opponents!
  • Yankees are 11-28 following a game in which they allowed 8 runs or more in their last 40 attempts!
  • Orioles are 35-18 after a day of rest over the last 3 seasons!
  • When Chris Tillman starts the Orioles are 11-1 since 2012 after throwing more than 100 pitches at home and winning his previous start!

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