August 5th 2014 - Posted at 4:00 PM ET
Sports Profit System is confident of a strong MLB month in August! There will of course be both wins and losses throughout the 31 days but it will be an excellent month when it's all over. Then comes September and it is no secret that football has always been our best sport. We outdo any service that is willing to be honest and transparent with results and enjoyed the highest football profit of all in 2013! Not every weekend was a good one but NFL and NCAA football were both lucrative and brought us just over 45 units (not factoring in juice) combined last season!
Take Kansas City Royals (-128) on the Money Line against Arizona D-backs risking 2%
(Duffy and Miley must start)
The Kansas City Royals travel to Arizona to open a 3-game series against the Diamondbacks tonight. No player steps up on the field not wanting to win but there isn't any doubt that each and every game is extremely important for Ned Yost's team now while the same can not be said for Arizona. After a poor start to the season, Kirk Gibson's squad never managed to recover to get back into the playoff race and they are basically going through the motions with little to play for but pride. The Royals on the other hand still harbous amibitions of catching the Tigers in the AL Central division and even if they don't, they are very much in the hunt for a Wild Card spot in the American League. They are currently just 1.5 games behind the Blue Jays who currently occupy the second Wild Card spot. In a tight competitive race against numerous other teams, there are no games to waste and the Royals know that. Wins are absolutely crucial if they want to make it to the post-season while every loss can be extremely costly! For that reason, you can expect KC players to be fully motivated and give it their all while a win or loss doesn't change much for Arizona tonight. That doesn't mean they won't try but it does mean that they aren't as likely to risk injuries or to go the extra mile to get the win.
The pitching matchup is a battle of lefties tonight and we believe Danny Duffy should have the edge. Duffy has been terrific this season and has surrendered just 2 or less earned runs in 8 of his past 9 games! His ERA is an excellent 2.42 ranking him right up there with the league's best! We backed Duffy and the Royals last Wednesday and Kansas City got the victory even though Duffy wasn't actually at his best. The southpaw did give up only 1 earned run but he walked a career-high 6 batters and struggled with his command and location. The fact that he was able to limit damage and only give up 1 run despite having an off night shows his maturity and confidence. Nonetheless, he's better than what he showed in his last start and we expect him to improve what was already a solid but hardly perfect performance.
Arizona will counter with their own lefty in Wade Miley. It's been a below-par season for him and he like the team as a whole has struggled at Chase Field. He's got a poor 5.46 ERA at home and twelve of the 18 home-runs he's given up have come at this stadium! Unlike Duffy, he has proven hittable this year and we expect the recently potent Royals offense to cause him some problems. Kansas City just won a road series in Oakland when their offense came alive delivering 10 and 14 hits against top-notch southpaws in Jon Lester and Scott Kazmir! They are not a team that scores many homeruns but they do league the AL in stolen bases and do just enough damage to win ball games. Eric Hosmer is the only player missing for the Royals but Arizona has numerous players out injured including the impressive Paul Goldschmidt and also recently traded away two of their better players!
The Royals are much less error-prone and are undoubtedly the more solid defensive team (better pitching and fielding). Arizona ranks 3rd bottom in the Majors (28th out of 30 teams) in Defensive Efficiency Ratio and is currently relying on a lot of young players who are learning their trade on the job to get experience for next season. The Royals are not only the better team but the more motivated one as they have a lot more to play for than their counterparts. The Diamondbacks are also coming off of a series that had tempers flaring and got pretty heated against Andrew McCutchen and the Pirates. Given the back and forth trash talking that happened, they got up for that series and gave it their all. Against an American league opponent that they don't play often however and with no playoff aspirations at this point in the season, we don't expect them to be at their best tonight.
This could be a close game but one team wants it more and also has the better bullpen and closer. Greg Holland is one of the best closers in the Majors and the Royals bullpen hasn't given up a run in 3 straight games! They are actually even better away from home while the Arizona bullpen has been atrocious at Chase Field! We expect Duffy to outpitch Miley but even if he doesn't, his bullpen and bats might save him. Look for the Royals to grab what would be a very important win for them as they enjoy several important advantages over the home team tonight.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Royals are 14-4 after the bullpen gave up no runs in 3 consecutive games!
- Arizona is just 6-12 as a small home underdog this season!
- Royals are 8-4 in inter-league games this season.
- Arizona bullpen has converted less than 50% of its save opportunities at home this season!
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