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April 27th 2014 - Posted at 11:00 AM Eastern Time

There were originally two bets planned for today with the second one being the 'Under' in Houston vs. Portland. BUT that total has plummeted from 217 to 214 and no longer presents sufficient value. 

We've now won 4 in a row and aim to make it 5 consecutive winners today!


Take Chicago Bulls at +1.5 spread against Washington Wizards risking 2% 

The Bulls managed to claw their way back into this series taking Game 3 on the road. We successfully backed Chicago in that game and feel that their experience and the momentum they carry into this game will be enough to get another win this afternoon. 
Game 3 was a back and forth contest with each team having their moments all the way until the finals minutes of the game. Midway through the fourth quarter however, Nene and Jimmy Butler got into a heated scuffle which eventually led to Nene being ejected! Time will tell but we believe that was basically the turning point in this series. With Nene out, the Bulls were able to develop rhythm on the inside and his absence may have ultimately cost his team not only that game but the series overall.

The league has suspended Nene for Game 4 and that immediately gives the Bulls a distinct advantage. Not only has Nene been the most important part of the Wizards offense in this series but he has also done extremely well on the defensive side! Joakim Noah is the Defensive Player of the Year and yet he has not been able to handle Nene in this series. He's had all kinds of problems with him and clearly affected Noah's game leading him to make some uncharacteristic turn-overs. But player don't win offensive / defensive awards without good reasons. Noah is a force on the defensive end and is also an underrated player on the offensive side setting screens and pick and rolls. In Nene's absence, we expect Noah to get back on track and have a dominant performance today!

The tenacious Bulls are the team with the momentum heading into this contest. They were in desperation mode last game when the pressure was high and they delivered. A bit of that pressure is off their shoulders now and mentally knowing that they can win on the road should have given them the confidence boost they needed. Now with Nene who had created severe matchup problems no longer a factor, this team knows that this is their best shot to even up the series! This young Wizards team on the other hand might be feeling a little bit of pressure of their own now. Yes they are still leading the series but all that can change very quickly. If the Wizards won two games on the road, only to lose their next two at home, that could be a crushing mental blow and one that this inexperienced team probably won't deal well with. The Wizards fought hard to get home court advantage and now they are on the brink of losing it and will be without the best player of the series so far. 

Whether the Nene suspension was warranted or not is up for debate and the Wizards organization may not feel it's completely justified but that is irrelevant. This is still a young team that plays with a lot of emotion. If they let that get to them, it will show by their play on the court. Playing with a chip on your shoulder can be beneficial IF a player knows how to channel that drive. Given the age of the Wizards and the lack of playoff experience, we're not sure they can do that. The Wizards were able to shock the league by winning two games on the road, so what is to say that Chicago can't do the same and get them back? The Bulls are a determined team that claws and grinds its way to wins and we expect one today. Tom Thibodeu is a veteran coach with far more playoff experience than Randy Wittman. They understand that the series isn't over until it's over and his players have seen it all before. Look for them to make the most of this opportunity. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Chicago is 28-15 ATS (Against-The-Spread) in a road game where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 3 seasons!
  • Wizards were just 2-4 SU and ATS as home favorite of 3 points or less this season
  • The Wizards own the worst home record among the 16 playoff teams!
  • Chicago is 78-54 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams (allowing 99+ points/game) in 2nd half of the season since 1996.



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