April 24th 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM Eastern Time
There are two picks (a side and a total in the same game) risking 4% tonight.
#1: Take Golden State at +3 spread against LA Clippers risking 2%
#2: Take the UNDER 212.5 Total in Golden State vs. LA Clippers risking 2%
The Game 3 of this series moves from the Staples Center to the Oracle Arena as the Golden State Warriors will now enjoy home court advantage against the visiting LA Clippers.The Warriors were able to upset the Clippers in the first game of the series but it was the LA team that bounced back and made a huge statement in their 40 point win in Game 2! With the series now tied at one game a piece, it is essentially there for the taking by either side.
The Clippers' blowout win over the Warriors in Game 2 was impressive. It's not too often that you see a team beat another by 40 points in the playoffs but while that was impressive, it was just one game and we don't feel that did the Clippers any real favors. Golden State is not as bad a team as the Clippers made them look on that particular night as evidence by their Game 1 win, however this line is telling. The Warriors have been one of the more consistent teams at home this season. Oracle Arena is one of the loudest venues in the league and we expect the crowd to be even noisier than usual tonight. The Warriors have rarely been listed as home underdogs this season and for good reasons. They are capable of beating any team on this court. In fact, when these two teams met earlier this season in Oakland, Golden State were listed as favorites and won both meetings. Had it not been for the embarrassing blowout loss, we feel that this line would have been closer to a PK. Both teams are capable of winning this game, so to get 3 points with the capable home underdog provides real value.
We also feel that the last game has changed the perception of the fickle public. The oddsmakers have to naturally inflate the lines after an extreme scoreline, which is what we feel they have done here. Still, after a 40 point blowout win, most see the same team listed as only -1.5 favorites and jump on it. The betting public usually only remembers the most recent result and will back the Clippers simply because of their last performance. We believe that is a mistake and the line movement has brought additional value to Golden State. The Clippers have spent a lot of time at the Staples Center recently and it'll take them awhile to get used to playing in a hostile environment. Seven of their last 8 games have been at home, while their only away game was a loss to the Portland Trailblazers where they shot only 40% from the field. The Clippers find themselves in unfamiliar territory tonight and it's worth noting that they have lost their last 5 trips to Oakland!
The Warriors were able to force Clippers into foul trouble early on in Game 1 and we expect them to use a similar game plan tonight. Being at home, the referees tend to give the home team the benefit with certain calls. If the refs decide to call a tight game, then we could see a similar result as Game 1, with a lot of Clipper playmakers being forced to make early exits. The Warriors also have an underrated defense, especially at home. They have held their opponents to just an average of 97 point per game despite being in the high scoring Western conference! Golden State is also an underrated team when it comes to rebounding the basketball. Over their first two meetings, the Warriors actually out-rebounded the Clippers pretty convincingly. Finally, Mark Jackson's team have been one of the better teams when it came to taking care of the basketball and limiting turnovers. In the last two games however we have seen their turnovers double and that won't continue much longer. Playing on the road in the playoffs may have had something to do with it, but now being at home we expect them to cut down on the number of turnovers which will directly effect the Clippers ability to play in transition and reduce fast-break points.
In the end, we simply feel that this line is inflated due to the result of the high-scoring last game. The Warriors should not be home underdogs and getting 3 points with a team that could essentially win this game outright is simply too good to pass up. The change of venue should effect the Clippers tonight. This should be an exciting game but the Warriors defense has the edge and will want to make up for its uncharacteristic last poor performance. We expect this game to be close throughout but the crowd and home court will be too much to overcome in the end. Take the points along with the Under.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Golden State is 8-1 after a loss by 10 or more points this season!
- Golden State is 23-12 revenging a loss this season!
- Golden State is 7-0-1 ATS after a game in which they committed 20+ turnovers!
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