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April 14th 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM Eastern Time

Sports Profit System will start MLB on Thursday April 17th and is looking forward to a solid season ahead!

The NBA play-offs were successful in 2013 and we are confident of the same this year.

Take the UNDER 212.5 Total in San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets risking 2%

The Rockets and the Spurs conclude their season series tonight with both having locked up playoff status and eagerly awaiting the postseason. Both Houston and San Antonio are known for their efficient offenses but at this point in the season, their focus is no longer necessarily on the offensive side. Both the coaches and the players are more interested in ending the regular season without injuries than blowing out the opposition. While both teams can be credited with dynamic offenses, the past meetings tell a bit of a different story. Their encounters have been more about which team was able to get the stops on the defensive end of the ball at key moments. Seven of the last 11 meetings between these teams has gone 'Under'. The last time these two teams met in Houston was back in January when we saw the Rockets come way with a low scoring 97-90 victory in a game that had the total listed at 209.5 points.

Even though the Spurs have clinched their #1 spot in the West, this is still an incredibly proud group of guys. They are not going to lay down and and allow the Rockets to completely dominate them. Having lost 3 times to them this season, they know that it's best to not let this turn into a shootout. We have seen the Spurs play solid defense and that is an area they hold an advantage. Houston has won the previous 3 meetings so this is San Antonio's chance to avoid being swept by their in state rivals, and to do that they are going to have to play defense. Meanwhile the Rockets need to play solid defense themselves if they are to get the win as Portland is now breathing down their neck for that 4th seed in the West and home court advantage in the playoffs.

The Rockets are a great offensive team, there is no question about that. They shoot well from the perimeter and get to the foul line often. That is always a concern but the fact that Houston games have gone OVER in 7 straight games and 9 of the last 10 is significant! The betting public is basically auto-betting the 'Over' in Rocket games at this point. We have seen Vegas list Houston totals at 222.5, 228, 223, 215.5 and most recently 211.5! And yet despite all those games going over, instead of raising the total to compensate for the high number of "Over Bets", they have actually left the total fairly low for a Houston home game. That in itself speaks volumes about where the odds-makers are expecting this total to fall. 

We may see a lot of bench players in various stages of this game which we believe will also contribute to this game staying Under. When players get a chance to take the floor for extended minutes they tend to play with purpose. Most notably on the defensive side of the ball. They are looking to impress their coaches and earn their spot in the rotation and that is typically done on the defensive side. Backup players are also not used to seeing these types of minutes so their offense isn't always sharp. We have seen scoring droughts when starters take the bench to get some rest because the bench players job is to basically maintain the flow of the game. To go over this total, both offenses need to remain incredibly consistent and pour in an average of 27 points per quarter. That is a lot of points to ask both sides to put up for all 4 quarters! At this point in the season, most players are either tired or carrying some kind of niggling injury. One quarter of either team hitting 25 or less could mean this game goes under. If this game avoids overtime, we feel it'll stay below 212.5 and disappoint the masses.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Under is 9-1 in Spurs' last 10 games following an ATS win this season!
  • Under 5-2 in San Antonio's last 7 games on the road.
  • Under is 10-3 after the Rockets had played a divisional game this season.

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