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April 13th 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM Eastern Time

Sports Profit System will start MLB on Thursday April 17th and is looking forward to a solid season ahead!

Take Portland Trail Blazers at -4 spread against Golden State Warriors risking 2%

As the regular season is coming to a close, this is one of the few games on the card that actually holds any kind of significance. Both the Blazers and the Warriors are playoff bound and both are peaking at the right point in the season. The difference here is that the Blazers are a team that is also getting healthy at the right moment. The Warriors have players like David Lee, Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala and Jermaine O'Neal, who are all ailing and nursing various injuries. They haven't been at full strength for quite some time and while these players will play, few are 100%.

Portland has been playing well recently and has even managed to turn up the defensive pressure. They have held their last 8 opponents to just 96 points per game. While that may not seem like a lot at first glance, considering that the Blazers used to be a team that was considered a "poor defensive" team and would win games with their prolific offense, the fact that they are making stops and holding teams under triple digits is impressive. As we mentioned, Portland has a prolific offense and now that they seem to be playing a bit of defense as well, that makes them a truly dangerous team. 

After tonight's matchup, the Warriors will travel back to Oracle Arena for their final home game of the season against the Timberwolves tomorrow. The Warriors will be looking to avenge an earlier loss to the Wolves and there is no doubt they are going to want to put on a show for their home fans one last time this regular season. Meanwhile, the Blazers will be focusing on revenging a loss to the Warriors during their last trip to Portland. It was the Warriors who connected on a perimeter shot as time expired in order to beat the Blazers. We're confident that Portland won't allow that to happen to them again tonight. 

This is not only a chance for the Blazers to avenge a loss but to also secure at least the 5th seed in the West. By beating Golden State, that will prevent the slim chance of Warriors leapfrogging the Blazers in the seeding. Portland will also have a chance to put real pressure on Houston for the 4th seed and a chance to secure home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs! The Warriors however may find themselves in a bit of a letdown spot for this game. They have beaten the Blazers twice this season. They have just recently clinched their own playoffs berth with their win over the Lakers the other night. This is a team that may be more concerned with getting healthy rather than winning more ball games. 

Everyone knows that getting healthy and peaking at the right time is key come playoff time. This is the most important time of the season, so we wouldn't be surprised to see Iguodala, Bogut and O'Neal play limited minutes in order to get some extra rest. Portland is an incredible 29-10 at home this season and we don't believe they are going to allow the Warriors to own a 3-1 record against them. We expect the Blazers to even up the series and get the win and cover.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Portland is 10-1-1 ATS as a home favorite after a double digit win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers!
  • Golden State is just 9-16 ATS after a win by 10 or more points this season.
  • Portland is 15-7 ATS in a game following a win on the road.

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