April 6th 2014 - Posted at 5:00 PM Eastern Time
There were originally two bets planned but one is a public side and has had huge movement and no longer presents sufficient value.
Take the UNDER 205.5 Total in New Orleans Pelicans vs. Portland Trail Blazers risking 2%
There is no question that the New Orleans Pelicans have been decimated with injuries this season! They have been down major offensive contributors for a good part of the season and much more so now that the season is close to an end. First it was Ryan Anderson, then Jrue Holiday, now its both Eric Gordon and Anthony Davis. That leaves the Pelicans pretty thin in terms of playmakers and today they are going up against a an athletic Portland Trail Blazers team.
For much of the season the Trailblazers have had the stigma of being a big offensive minded team. At one point this season they even led the league in points per game. Many still view Portland as that high scoring team but recently that has not been the case. The Blazers have been much more content to play solid defense and win games instead of just putting points up on the board. They have seen an increase in their defensive pressure, something that had not necessarily been a priority of theirs previously. Portland has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to under 100 points and we expect the same tonight!
There is no question that Portland is the healthier and more talented team at this point so while they should win this game fairly easily, we do expect them to be somewhat merciful. Portland has nothing to prove by blowing out an injury riddled team who will more than likely have trouble putting points on the board today.
Looking at the past matchups between these two teams, you'll see that those 3 games had easily gone over the posted total, but these were two different teams at the time. New Orleans was a team that had a lot of young talent and were expected to have a strong season. These previous meetings happened before most of the injuries so essentially this will be a different team competing tonight. Meanwhile Portland has only gotten stronger defensively as the season has gone on. While the threat of the Blazers putting up a big score is always there, even if they do score over 105 or 110 points, we don't feel that New Orleans will do their part to make this game go over the total. New Orleans has gone 0-5 ATS when listed as an underdog between 9.5 and 12 points and the Under has hit in 4 of those 5 situations showing that the Pelicans have had a hard time scoring and have fallen short playing with backup players.
Totals are made with the scoring of both teams in mind. One could put up an impressive offensive performance but if the other team doesn't do their part, the total can still go Under. This total is set a just a bit too high and if the game doesn't go to overtime which is fairly unlikely, we see this finishing 105-95 or in that neightbourhood. The public sees two high-scoring teams but this total has been set a couple of points too high on purpose. Take the Under.
Other notable facts to consider:
- The Under is 12-4 when New Orleans is attempting to revenge a home loss this season!
- The Under is 4-1 when New Orleans is listed as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points this season!
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